I don't know why I let that mean woman make me a fool. "Whipping Post" - The Allman Brothers
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–21 on winners spread MAE 8.4 69 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida State @ North Carolina +17.6 156.4 94% 66–79 ✓
Duquesne @ Davidson +6.4 158.2 72% 89–83 ✗
Temple @ Charlotte +3.3 147.1 62% 76–73 ✗
Seton Hall @ Marquette -6.9 139.6 27% 79–73 ✓
Milwaukee @ Wisconsin +16.6 161.7 93% 60–80 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Miami +13.3 146.8 89% 69–76 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Bowling Green +7.5 155.2 75% 93–83 ✗
South Carolina State @ Tennessee +40.4 147.5 100% 54–105 ✓
Massachusetts @ Eastern Michigan +2.9 141.0 60% 74–80 ✓
Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech +3.2 152.2 61% 88–76 ✗
New Hampshire @ Nebraska +30.2 138.0 100% 55–86 ✓
Louisville @ California -6.0 156.5 29% 90–70 ✓
Nevada @ Colorado State +3.8 150.5 63% 75–62 ✗
Saint Mary's @ Pepperdine -14.8 139.4 9% 72–45 ✓
Utah State @ Fresno State -12.8 148.5 12% 72–63 ✓
Notre Dame @ Stanford +2.1 152.1 58% 47–40 ✗
Butler @ Creighton +2.5 152.8 59% 85–89 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Diego -27.2 154.4 1% 99–93 ✓
Washington State @ Seattle U +6.8 142.5 73% 55–69 ✓
Santa Clara @ Portland -12.3 153.6 13% 92–85 ✓
San Francisco @ Oregon State -3.1 142.4 39% 62–70 ✗
Pacific @ Loyola Marymount +4.2 131.4 65% 71–80 ✓
San Diego State @ San José State -7.9 145.4 24% 81–68 ✓
New Mexico @ Boise State +6.0 142.4 71% 53–62 ✓
Loyola Chicago @ Rhode Island +17.9 144.3 95% 61–57 ✗
Tulane @ East Carolina -0.5 147.0 48% 79–70 ✓
Army @ Lehigh +6.0 148.0 71% 85–78 ✗
Wake Forest @ NC State +11.8 165.0 86% 57–70 ✓
Mercer @ Furman +2.8 151.4 60% 72–74 ✓
Lamar @ East Texas A&M +0.2 142.9 51% 69–62 ✗
UTSA @ Florida Atlantic +20.1 149.9 97% 70–110 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ American University +10.4 158.8 83% 69–84 ✓
Boston University @ Navy +8.2 146.3 77% 77–82 ✓
Buffalo @ Northern Illinois -6.3 153.4 28% 81–67 ✓
Wofford @ Western Carolina +0.3 152.4 51% 79–74 ✗
South Alabama @ Louisiana -4.2 127.4 35% 63–58 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -3.9 158.6 36% 85–95 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ VCU +11.3 157.8 85% 82–89 ✓
George Mason @ La Salle -8.4 132.3 22% 80–75 ✓
Fordham @ Dayton +13.0 134.5 88% 56–63 ✓
Rice @ Tulsa +20.0 158.3 97% 48–97 ✓
Bucknell @ Holy Cross +3.9 136.8 64% 58–65 ✓
Radford @ South Carolina Upstate +8.6 159.1 78% 76–69 ✗
High Point @ UNC Asheville -7.9 157.1 24% 87–69 ✓
Charleston Southern @ Gardner-Webb -15.7 160.0 8% 89–79 ✓
Clemson @ Syracuse -2.6 139.7 40% 64–61 ✓
NJIT @ Pennsylvania +16.5 148.7 93% 61–80 ✓
Charleston @ Elon +8.4 163.5 78% 85–81 ✗
Campbell @ Monmouth +5.0 156.2 67% 68–65 ✗
Stony Brook @ William & Mary +16.2 153.8 93% 57–76 ✓
Texas State @ Troy +14.7 153.1 91% 80–100 ✓
App State @ Old Dominion +5.3 135.6 69% 81–73 ✗
Towson @ Hampton -3.2 128.6 39% 62–63 ✗
Colgate @ Lafayette -6.3 152.6 28% 85–77 ✓
Winthrop @ Longwood -10.2 167.4 18% 70–82 ✗
Northeastern @ North Carolina A&T -0.2 155.0 49% 85–74 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Duke +30.2 148.9 100% 79–85 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Saint Louis +27.5 157.3 99% 79–102 ✓
George Washington @ Richmond +0.4 162.3 51% 99–85 ✗
North Texas @ Memphis +10.5 129.5 83% 48–57 ✓
Wichita State @ UAB +0.5 145.6 52% 75–70 ✗
Kansas City @ Denver +11.8 158.7 86% 74–87 ✓
Georgia State @ Marshall +18.4 146.3 95% 80–84 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Northwestern State -13.2 146.2 11% 74–64 ✓
New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +3.5 144.7 63% 69–83 ✓
UConn @ Xavier -13.5 143.9 11% 90–67 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +13.7 164.6 89% 61–84 ✓
Nicholls @ UT Rio Grande Valley +7.1 151.2 74% 71–69 ✗
DePaul @ Villanova +15.6 137.4 92% 66–71 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.