Betting Lines
| Spread | NEB -31.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | NEB -6500 UNH +2000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NEB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NEB +31 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | NEB -30.0 (+1.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.8 (+2.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NEB -25.9 (+5.1) | 145.6 (-4.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NEB -23.8 (+7.2) | 138.2 (+2.8) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NEB -28.8 (+2.2) | 136.9 (+4.1) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NEB -28.9 (+2.1) | 143.5 (-2.5) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NEB | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 5-11 |
| Home | 16-2 | 8-5 |
| Away | 7-3 | 1-16 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 76.4 |
| Massey | 15.9 (#29) | -10.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 4.96 (#5) | -2.37 (#335) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 6.84 (#7) | -3.73 (#342) |
| RPI | 0.675 (#4) | 0.411 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NEB | UNH |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 38.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.9% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 37.8 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 2.01 | 0.77 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 44.6% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 23.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 16.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.7% | 52.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.7% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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