You scumbag, you maggot, you cheap lousy faggot "Fairytale of New York" - The Pogues
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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46–19 on winners spread MAE 8.0 65 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Western Michigan @ Central Michigan +4.5 146.3 66% 55–65 ✓
South Florida @ UCF +12.2 125.1 87% 49–68 ✓
Southern Miss @ Florida International +10.6 133.8 83% 67–77 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida Atlantic -1.2 144.3 46% 73–83 ✗
Western Kentucky @ Charlotte -0.6 147.5 48% 78–59 ✓
Bryant @ Saint Francis -3.8 153.0 36% 89–82 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ St. Francis Brooklyn +7.3 139.3 75% 64–81 ✓
Merrimack @ Mount St. Mary's +7.2 116.1 74% 53–69 ✓
Sacred Heart @ Long Island University +9.6 155.9 81% 75–79 ✓
Wagner @ Central Connecticut -16.5 135.2 7% 54–52 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Winthrop +8.6 152.6 78% 54–64 ✓
Youngstown State @ IU Indianapolis -15.7 122.9 8% 61–55 ✓
South Alabama @ Georgia Southern -3.0 135.2 39% 57–58 ✗
Troy @ Georgia State +0.7 141.5 52% 67–63 ✗
Towson @ Hofstra +1.4 136.6 55% 78–68 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ Elon -0.7 136.9 48% 65–78 ✗
James Madison @ Northeastern -0.3 143.5 49% 76–71 ✓
Charleston @ William & Mary -9.0 153.2 21% 84–61 ✓
Utah Tech @ Sam Houston +8.7 139.8 79% 53–77 ✓
Utah Valley @ Stephen F. Austin -0.4 135.0 49% 59–78 ✗
UCLA @ Arizona +7.8 151.5 76% 66–76 ✓
UTSA @ Rice +14.5 146.6 91% 78–91 ✓
Marshall @ Old Dominion +4.9 145.0 67% 64–79 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +9.7 150.3 81% 106–99 ✗
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian +0.1 145.9 51% 97–87 ✗
Robert Morris @ UIC +5.7 149.2 70% 75–80 ✓
UL Monroe @ Arkansas State +10.6 146.0 83% 60–59 ✗
St. Thomas @ Kansas City +3.8 141.0 63% 72–81 ✓
Western Illinois @ Oral Roberts +7.7 161.4 76% 90–85 ✗
Omaha @ North Dakota State +16.9 149.0 94% 64–71 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota -3.8 146.0 37% 81–79 ✓
Stetson @ Lipscomb +6.0 148.2 71% 77–71 ✗
LSU New Orleans @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +4.8 148.2 67% 79–70 ✗
SE Louisiana @ McNeese +2.2 153.1 58% 83–78 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville State +14.8 137.8 91% 88–76 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ Central Arkansas -7.3 163.6 25% 95–93 ✓
Gonzaga @ San Diego -20.6 148.6 3% 92–62 ✓
San José State @ Utah State +21.8 139.9 98% 62–78 ✓
Boise State @ Wyoming +2.1 131.1 58% 65–72 ✓
Oregon State @ Utah +8.1 143.1 77% 59–84 ✓
Washington State @ Stanford -3.7 131.5 37% 66–60 ✓
Nicholls @ Incarnate Word -11.2 145.8 15% 63–60 ✓
Belmont @ Tennessee State -16.3 149.4 7% 88–61 ✓
Montana @ Weber State +7.2 140.7 74% 75–80 ✓
Idaho @ Southern Utah +13.2 162.5 88% 59–75 ✓
Seattle U @ Grand Canyon +5.4 134.9 69% 66–78 ✓
California Baptist @ New Mexico State +11.7 144.4 86% 57–68 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ Santa Clara +13.4 152.1 89% 60–79 ✓
Jacksonville @ North Alabama +0.5 116.0 52% 56–50 ✗
Pepperdine @ Pacific +4.0 137.9 64% 76–81 ✓
Oregon @ Colorado -0.6 140.6 48% 66–51 ✓
Cal State Bakersfield @ Long Beach State +6.9 137.3 74% 65–74 ✓
UC Irvine @ UC Santa Barbara +0.2 126.5 51% 53–52 ✗
Cal Poly @ Cal State Fullerton +13.4 130.3 89% 50–61 ✓
UC San Diego @ Cal State Northridge -2.3 132.2 42% 83–77 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State +3.5 133.5 63% 62–61 ✗
San Francisco @ BYU +4.2 141.9 65% 73–59 ✗
USC @ Arizona State -7.8 133.6 24% 58–53 ✓
Washington @ California +5.3 131.3 69% 84–63 ✗
Hawai'i @ UC Riverside +2.4 126.6 59% 59–64 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Portland -12.6 130.0 13% 75–54 ✓
Dartmouth @ Yale +7.7 135.6 76% 69–72 ✓
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +4.8 142.1 67% 61–71 ✓
Western Carolina @ VMI +12.3 159.4 87% 69–76 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Akron +6.7 140.2 73% 55–66 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.