The juice of the carrot, the smile of the parrot / A little drop of claret - anything that rocks "Reasons to be Cheerful, Part 3" - Ian Dury & the Blockheads
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–14 on winners spread MAE 7.8 50 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Purdue @ Minnesota -9.9 147.4 19% 88–73 ✓
Vanderbilt @ Kentucky +16.7 139.2 93% 70–77 ✓
Butler @ Xavier +16.5 129.0 93% 66–68 ✓
American University @ Lafayette +5.9 133.3 70% 62–71 ✓
Army @ Loyola Maryland +4.6 139.9 66% 57–61 ✓
Bucknell @ Colgate +17.2 149.2 94% 69–83 ✓
Temple @ East Carolina +0.1 137.8 51% 71–63 ✗
Navy @ Lehigh -6.7 131.4 27% 62–63 ✗
South Carolina Upstate @ Hampton -2.7 135.5 40% 85–78 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ High Point -2.5 130.0 41% 65–57 ✓
Campbell @ Presbyterian -2.0 121.9 43% 58–64 ✗
Notre Dame @ Miami +3.8 143.6 64% 68–64 ✗
Pittsburgh @ Wake Forest +15.0 135.5 91% 75–91 ✓
Florida State @ Clemson +4.9 140.9 67% 69–75 ✓
NJIT @ Vermont +19.8 133.2 96% 67–90 ✓
UMass Lowell @ Maine -9.3 130.1 20% 62–50 ✓
UMBC @ UAlbany +1.0 133.2 54% 59–53 ✗
Hartford @ New Hampshire +5.4 139.2 69% 64–70 ✓
Binghamton @ Stony Brook +7.7 143.6 76% 77–61 ✗
Drake @ Indiana State -3.6 145.0 37% 85–67 ✓
La Salle @ George Washington +2.2 138.0 58% 87–89 ✓
Saint Louis @ George Mason -0.7 136.8 47% 92–90 ✓
Rhode Island @ Fordham -2.4 127.2 41% 55–61 ✗
East Tennessee State @ Western Carolina -3.7 149.2 37% 84–87 ✗
VMI @ UNC Greensboro +1.2 138.0 54% 76–65 ✗
The Citadel @ Furman +17.5 154.1 94% 83–102 ✓
Arkansas @ Georgia -9.8 155.6 19% 99–73 ✓
Coppin State @ Delaware State -12.6 141.7 13% 59–57 ✓
Tulane @ Houston +20.2 137.0 97% 62–73 ✓
Lamar @ UT Rio Grande Valley +9.4 149.8 80% 79–93 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa +2.2 140.9 58% 65–78 ✓
Illinois State @ Loyola Chicago +15.7 152.4 92% 64–78 ✓
Chattanooga @ Samford -8.8 143.7 21% 72–80 ✗
Wisconsin @ Illinois +7.0 138.8 74% 67–80 ✓
Syracuse @ NC State +0.3 162.9 51% 89–82 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Virginia Tech +13.4 131.2 89% 66–81 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Kansas State +1.9 129.1 57% 68–71 ✓
Missouri State @ Southern Illinois -2.6 126.9 41% 69–54 ✓
Dayton @ VCU +3.5 114.0 62% 82–52 ✗
Villanova @ Marquette -5.5 135.0 31% 73–83 ✗
Liberty @ Bellarmine -2.6 130.8 41% 66–53 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ohio +15.9 141.9 93% 68–81 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +10.7 137.0 83% 68–75 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Eastern Kentucky +2.4 151.9 58% 81–82 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ UT Martin +2.2 159.5 58% 63–84 ✓
Murray State @ Austin Peay -13.9 135.8 10% 65–53 ✓
St. John's @ Georgetown -4.3 164.4 35% 90–77 ✓
App State @ Texas State +3.0 124.2 61% 66–68 ✓
Drexel @ Delaware +4.1 139.5 65% 76–68 ✗
Louisiana @ Little Rock -6.0 146.2 29% 75–51 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.