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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
24–6 on winners
spread MAE 8.2
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Kansas
@
Iowa State
|
-2.1 | 142.1 | 42% | 70–61 | ✓ |
Michigan State
@
Maryland
|
-4.7 | 139.7 | 33% | 65–63 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Tennessee
|
+13.0 | 135.3 | 88% | 80–90 | ✓ |
Canisius
@
Siena
|
+3.7 | 134.6 | 63% | 65–73 | ✓ |
Richmond
@
Duquesne
|
-6.6 | 139.8 | 27% | 74–57 | ✓ |
Davidson
@
St. Bonaventure
|
-0.6 | 142.3 | 48% | 81–76 | ✓ |
Northern Illinois
@
Western Michigan
|
+0.1 | 136.3 | 50% | 75–56 | ✗ |
Ball State
@
Ohio
|
+13.8 | 143.8 | 90% | 63–87 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-10.7 | 152.0 | 17% | 86–66 | ✓ |
Bowling Green
@
Central Michigan
|
-6.3 | 162.9 | 28% | 74–78 | ✗ |
Kent State
@
Miami (OH)
|
+1.5 | 139.0 | 55% | 78–65 | ✗ |
South Carolina
@
Mississippi State
|
+8.8 | 137.2 | 79% | 64–78 | ✓ |
Rutgers
@
Northwestern
|
+7.5 | 134.4 | 75% | 78–79 | ✓ |
North Carolina
@
Louisville
|
-4.1 | 146.0 | 36% | 90–83 | ✓ |
Seton Hall
@
Georgetown
|
-8.8 | 154.7 | 21% | 70–63 | ✓ |
Alabama
@
Auburn
|
+7.9 | 158.2 | 76% | 81–100 | ✓ |
Texas
@
Texas Tech
|
+3.5 | 118.5 | 62% | 64–77 | ✓ |
Providence
@
St. John's
|
+0.9 | 147.9 | 53% | 86–82 | ✗ |
Ole Miss
@
LSU
|
+17.4 | 124.2 | 94% | 76–72 | ✗ |
Tulsa
@
Wichita State
|
+9.2 | 136.3 | 80% | 48–58 | ✓ |
Air Force
@
Utah State
|
+15.1 | 125.3 | 91% | 46–73 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Michigan
|
+15.4 | 149.7 | 92% | 79–85 | ✓ |
California
@
Stanford
|
+5.1 | 130.6 | 68% | 50–57 | ✓ |
UC Davis
@
UC Riverside
|
+7.2 | 126.1 | 74% | 65–60 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
UNLV
|
+6.3 | 147.7 | 72% | 58–69 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
San José State
|
-11.3 | 123.6 | 15% | 73–43 | ✓ |
Florida
@
Missouri
|
-8.1 | 133.9 | 23% | 66–65 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
Abilene Christian
|
+18.7 | 141.5 | 96% | 73–77 | ✓ |
Longwood
@
UNC Asheville
|
-2.1 | 141.8 | 42% | 56–48 | ✓ |
Charleston Southern
@
Radford
|
+10.7 | 135.3 | 84% | 52–64 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.