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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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17–12 on winners spread MAE 8.8 29 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Duke @ Notre Dame	-5.6	144.7	31%	57–43	✓
Kansas City @ Western Illinois	+8.5	140.5	78%	83–75	✗
Liberty @ Kennesaw State	-3.3	138.2	38%	65–50	✓
Hartford @ Maine	-6.5	139.7	28%	78–66	✓
UAlbany @ Vermont	+15.4	128.1	92%	61–73	✓
Northern Arizona @ Southern Utah	+13.8	149.8	90%	66–78	✓
Drexel @ UNC Wilmington	-0.3	142.1	49%	63–70	✗
Holy Cross @ Boston University	+18.1	134.8	95%	75–70	✗
Morehead State @ Tennessee Tech	-3.1	138.1	39%	70–56	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Austin Peay	+3.4	138.6	62%	63–68	✓
Wofford @ Mercer	-5.0	139.0	33%	62–67	✗
Iowa @ Penn State	-4.6	140.6	34%	86–90	✗
Howard @ South Carolina State	-7.8	157.2	24%	55–58	✗
Morgan State @ Maryland Eastern Shore	+8.5	140.8	78%	72–79	✓
South Dakota State @ North Dakota	-19.4	165.1	4%	70–64	✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Alabama A&M	+2.6	118.2	59%	52–67	✓
Colorado State @ Wyoming	+3.9	147.2	64%	78–84	✓
Southern @ Jackson State	-2.9	127.4	40%	75–64	✓
Grambling @ Alcorn State	+8.4	139.1	78%	80–73	✗
West Virginia @ Baylor	+15.4	136.0	92%	77–81	✓
Eastern Washington @ Weber State	+8.3	156.2	77%	84–90	✓
Norfolk State @ North Carolina Central	-1.8	138.1	44%	67–70	✗
Florida A&M @ Alabama State	+4.0	139.9	64%	66–65	✗
Pacific @ Santa Clara	+17.2	147.2	94%	59–81	✓
TCU @ Oklahoma	+5.3	127.5	68%	72–63	✗
New Mexico @ San Diego State	+12.7	138.0	88%	47–72	✓
Northern Colorado @ Portland State	-3.8	150.0	37%	76–79	✗
Boston College @ Virginia	+6.5	117.5	72%	55–67	✓
Creighton @ UConn	+11.8	140.4	86%	59–55	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.