Betting Lines
| Spread | UVM -16.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 131.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVM +12 | 134 | Won |
| Massey | UVM -16.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.9 (+6.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVM -14.1 (-2.1) | 133.2 (+0.8) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVM -14.4 (-2.4) | 134.4 (-0.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVM -15.2 (-3.2) | 135.0 (-1.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVM -14.7 (-2.7) | 134.1 (-0.1) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | UVM 69 – 56 UALB |
| Jan 19, 2026 | UALB 75 – 68 UVM |
| Mar 5, 2025 | UVM 79 – 71 UALB |
| Feb 9, 2025 | UVM 68 – 62 UALB |
| Mar 9, 2024 | UVM 75 – 72 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-6 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 17-1 | 9-9 |
| Home | 16-0 | 4-8 |
| Away | 10-4 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.6 | 61.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.1 | 65.9 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#79) | -5.9 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.57 (#66) | -1.05 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#65) | -1.40 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.569 (#72) | 0.452 (#255) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVM | UALB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 33.2 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.3 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.71 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 14.8% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 20.9% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.0% | 19.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 49.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 81.2% | 70.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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