Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -3.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | NCCU +130 NORF -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NCCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NCCU +3 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -2.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.8 (-0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 10% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -3.0 (+6.0) | 141.9 (-4.9) | 38% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.3 (+6.3) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -3.0 (+6.0) | 142.1 (-5.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.3 (+6.3) | 142.4 (-5.4) | 40% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-15 | 24-7 |
| Conference | 8-5 | 12-2 |
| Home | 9-2 | 11-0 |
| Away | 5-11 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 6-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 66.6 |
| Massey | -6.1 (#273) | -0.4 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.37 (#283) | 0.76 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.96 (#294) | 0.80 (#126) |
| RPI | 0.438 (#290) | 0.514 (#153) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NCCU | NORF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.6% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.7% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 24.1% | 19.1% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.0% | 27.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 45.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.3% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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