Betting Lines
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | UNCW -130 DREX +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCW +7 | 133 | Won |
| Massey | DREX -0.1 (+7.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-8.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCW -0.3 (+6.7) | 140.9 (-7.9) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCW -1.5 (+5.5) | 143.3 (-10.3) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCW -1.1 (+5.9) | 143.0 (-10.0) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCW -0.8 (+6.2) | 142.5 (-9.5) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 1, 2026 | UNCW 65 – 53 DREX |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCW 81 – 79 DREX |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UNCW 75 – 56 DREX |
| Jan 5, 2024 | DREX 78 – 63 UNCW |
| Mar 5, 2023 | UNCW 73 – 68 DREX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-9 | 15-14 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-2 | 8-4 |
| Away | 9-5 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | W4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 71.6 | 71.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.4 | 70.1 |
| Massey | -2.5 (#217) | 1.0 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.77 (#120) | 0.06 (#176) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.36 (#148) | 0.02 (#180) |
| RPI | 0.539 (#112) | 0.486 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCW | DREX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.3% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 31.8% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 33.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.2% | 52.6% |
| TOV% | 15.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.4% | 17.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.1% | 51.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.5% | 19.7% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.