Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -17.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UND win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +6 | 134 | Lost |
| Massey | SDST -19.1 (+13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 165.0 (-31.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -14.2 (+8.2) | 156.4 (-22.4) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -16.0 (+10.0) | 164.1 (-30.1) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -17.2 (+11.2) | 163.0 (-29.0) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -16.9 (+10.9) | 159.0 (-25.0) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 18-0 |
| Home | 4-11 | 14-0 |
| Away | 1-13 | 10-3 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 84.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.1 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -14.8 (#348) | 7.6 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.81 (#347) | 1.66 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -4.03 (#352) | 1.76 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.367 (#349) | 0.585 (#51) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UND | SDST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.4% | 51.5% |
| 3PT% | 30.3% | 44.0% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.24 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.9% | 59.3% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 16.4% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 24.1% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 26.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 57.3% | 52.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.7% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 73.3% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 16.1% |
Game Analysis
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