Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UMES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +7 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | UMES -9.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMES -5.1 (+1.9) | 141.7 (+9.3) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMES -6.5 (+0.5) | 141.7 (+9.3) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UMES -6.6 (+0.4) | 140.8 (+10.2) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMES -5.7 (+1.3) | 141.9 (+9.1) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-16 | 13-15 |
| Conference | 6-8 | 7-6 |
| Home | 6-4 | 8-3 |
| Away | 5-11 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.8 | 70.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.7 | 74.5 |
| Massey | -7.0 (#289) | -12.9 (#340) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.32 (#276) | -2.11 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.34 (#314) | -2.63 (#329) |
| RPI | 0.450 (#259) | 0.406 (#320) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UMES | MORG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 39.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 28.9% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 12.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.0% | 44.4% |
| TOV% | 19.8% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 26.5% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.8% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 54.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 22.7% |
| DRB% | 69.4% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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