Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CREI +4 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | CONN -12.2 (-16.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.3 (-27.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -10.7 (-14.7) | 139.8 (-25.8) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -11.6 (-15.6) | 141.2 (-27.2) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -10.5 (-14.5) | 140.1 (-26.1) | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -10.6 (-14.6) | 139.5 (-25.5) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | CREI 91 – 84 CONN |
| Feb 1, 2026 | CONN 85 – 58 CREI |
| Mar 15, 2025 | CREI 71 – 62 CONN |
| Feb 12, 2025 | CONN 70 – 66 CREI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | CREI 68 – 63 CONN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 23-12 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 12-7 |
| Home | 14-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 5-5 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 69.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 66.4 |
| Massey | 16.2 (#15) | 7.4 (#76) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.07 (#13) | 1.79 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.95 (#14) | 2.61 (#40) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#29) | 0.550 (#87) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | CREI |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 42.3 | 38.6 |
| OREB / G | 14.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 21.4% |
| ORB% | 38.8% | 30.2% |
| FT Rate | 25.0% | 18.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.7% | 45.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 14.9% |
Game Analysis
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