Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 119.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UVA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +12 | 122 | Won |
| Massey | UVA -7.8 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 117.2 (+4.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -7.8 (+4.2) | 121.5 (+0.5) | 79% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -6.1 (+5.9) | 125.5 (-3.5) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -6.8 (+5.2) | 124.8 (-2.8) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -5.5 (+6.5) | 123.9 (-1.9) | 75% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | UVA 73 – 66 BC |
| Jan 22, 2025 | UVA 74 – 56 BC |
| Mar 15, 2024 | UVA 66 – 60 BC |
| Feb 29, 2024 | UVA 72 – 68 BC |
| Feb 23, 2023 | BC 63 – 48 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 6-14 |
| Home | 11-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 7-6 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 66.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.1 | 68.1 |
| Massey | 5.5 (#98) | 1.0 (#145) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.86 (#113) | -0.22 (#191) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.13 (#107) | -0.00 (#182) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#119) | 0.459 (#240) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UVA | BC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 31.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 36.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 11.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.41 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 45.9% |
| TOV% | 16.7% | 17.1% |
| ORB% | 29.2% | 31.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 22.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 18.5% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 76.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.3% | 22.0% |
Game Analysis
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