Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +25 | 119 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -12.5 (+12.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-20.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -15.5 (+9.5) | 142.6 (-23.6) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -11.1 (+13.9) | 140.7 (-21.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -11.9 (+13.1) | 141.2 (-22.2) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -11.7 (+13.3) | 143.0 (-24.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 14, 2026 | SDSU 64 – 62 UNM |
| Feb 28, 2026 | UNM 81 – 76 SDSU |
| Jan 18, 2026 | SDSU 83 – 79 UNM |
| Feb 26, 2025 | SDSU 73 – 65 UNM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | UNM 62 – 48 SDSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-9 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-4 | 5-12 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 58.1 | 76.7 |
| Massey | 10.0 (#48) | 0.8 (#148) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#54) | -0.01 (#180) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#46) | 0.13 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.606 (#32) | 0.510 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 34.6% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.09 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.4% | 50.2% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 24.9% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 42.5% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.4% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.7% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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