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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–18 on winners spread MAE 7.7 61 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Iowa @ Purdue	+8.8	147.0	82%	73–87	✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International	-1.4	140.0	46%	62–66	✗
Rice @ Florida Atlantic	+12.6	150.4	88%	81–90	✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford	+2.7	127.7	54%	61–48	✗
Stonehill @ Merrimack	+0.4	129.0	56%	43–56	✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University	-7.6	150.3	18%	80–79	✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern	-5.4	139.3	33%	73–76	✗
Old Dominion @ Georgia State	-0.0	130.2	44%	63–60	✓
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina	-8.9	155.8	23%	92–74	✓
Kansas City @ Western Illinois	+0.6	134.2	55%	76–64	✗
Bellarmine @ Liberty	+15.4	129.2	88%	50–70	✓
Stetson @ Jacksonville	-0.3	133.6	51%	70–67	✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Queens University	+2.8	152.4	64%	84–80	✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida	-2.5	148.6	41%	68–66	✓
UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley	+1.4	139.8	46%	64–58	✗
App State @ UL Monroe	-2.9	131.9	42%	52–45	✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock	-2.2	141.1	37%	68–72	✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky	-0.8	140.6	48%	89–93	✗
UAB @ North Texas	+3.3	123.1	64%	79–82	✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls	+10.2	150.7	84%	59–84	✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State	+5.3	134.0	69%	69–63	✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State	+7.8	125.0	76%	62–66	✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas	-8.7	151.9	20%	95–88	✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State	+7.7	146.8	81%	58–84	✓
Denver @ North Dakota	+1.2	146.5	63%	63–86	✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood	-4.7	140.9	35%	63–58	✓
Oakland @ Green Bay	-8.7	141.7	19%	59–47	✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee	+1.0	157.9	63%	89–94	✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado	+2.5	153.4	60%	79–88	✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona	+0.9	135.5	58%	55–77	✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi	+14.3	156.6	88%	68–91	✓
SE Louisiana @ McNeese	-1.7	142.9	48%	66–69	✗
Lamar @ Incarnate Word	+5.1	137.4	65%	68–59	✗
Louisiana @ Southern Miss	+2.7	145.2	67%	71–82	✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois	-3.5	149.8	41%	75–77	✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State	-3.4	139.9	31%	54–52	✓
Austin Peay @ North Alabama	+4.6	143.5	67%	57–70	✓
UCLA @ Oregon State	-15.4	127.6	13%	62–47	✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga	+12.1	156.5	87%	81–99	✓
Charlotte @ UTEP	-1.0	126.3	46%	62–53	✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M	-0.9	141.1	39%	88–82	✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah	+6.2	148.2	76%	62–72	✓
Pacific @ Portland	+5.3	159.5	77%	73–81	✓
South Alabama @ Troy	+3.9	136.0	69%	57–61	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State	+0.2	156.5	50%	65–85	✓
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech	-1.1	152.2	49%	69–84	✗
UC Davis @ UC Riverside	+1.7	140.1	64%	65–72	✓
Montana State @ Weber State	-3.4	129.6	39%	63–73	✗
Montana @ Idaho State	-0.5	136.7	45%	69–61	✓
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas	-6.1	154.1	31%	93–81	✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount	-7.2	130.8	28%	74–78	✗
Arizona State @ Stanford	+0.9	136.7	58%	69–65	✗
San Diego @ Santa Clara	+11.2	155.7	85%	75–80	✓
BYU @ Pepperdine	-7.1	153.2	23%	80–92	✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield	+3.6	128.3	65%	58–73	✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine	+13.8	129.1	87%	54–55	✓
Arizona @ California	-14.8	139.2	13%	85–62	✓
USC @ Oregon	+3.4	142.5	67%	60–78	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State	+0.5	144.5	50%	75–72	✗
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i	+9.6	134.3	83%	62–69	✓
Kent State @ Buffalo	-2.5	148.9	35%	72–65	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.