He just grinned and shook my hand, "No" was all he said. "The Weight" - The Band
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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47–17 on winners spread MAE 8.2 64 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Temple @ Florida Atlantic +16.8 150.3 90% 68–80 ✓
SMU @ Tulane -3.6 155.0 37% 87–79 ✓
Wichita State @ East Carolina +1.3 136.8 57% 55–68 ✓
UTSA @ Charlotte +12.9 148.2 88% 70–79 ✓
Towson @ William & Mary -7.4 131.5 22% 61–52 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington +15.9 147.0 91% 54–73 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel +2.8 131.1 62% 77–79 ✓
Delaware @ Elon -7.9 143.6 22% 67–73 ✗
Charleston @ Northeastern -2.2 149.5 40% 77–73 ✓
Campbell @ Monmouth +8.0 140.9 80% 87–88 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Le Moyne +0.0 139.2 49% 64–69 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University +0.1 148.0 48% 84–82 ✗
Merrimack @ Stonehill -12.0 130.8 14% 66–63 ✓
Wagner @ Saint Francis -3.1 125.3 33% 65–63 ✓
Louisiana @ Old Dominion -6.8 142.0 24% 68–60 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Coastal Carolina +1.0 152.3 56% 75–82 ✓
New Hampshire @ Vermont +6.9 135.6 79% 54–70 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +5.0 137.9 72% 72–77 ✓
NJIT @ UAlbany +5.9 146.8 73% 58–83 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Louisiana Tech +11.8 132.8 86% 58–63 ✓
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +5.8 143.9 75% 80–90 ✓
Abilene Christian @ UT Rio Grande Valley -0.6 145.5 49% 87–79 ✓
Florida International @ Sam Houston +7.8 145.5 79% 56–70 ✓
New Mexico State @ Middle Tennessee -0.2 133.3 53% 69–76 ✗
Memphis @ North Texas +2.3 137.2 61% 66–76 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +0.3 142.1 51% 85–69 ✗
Morehead State @ Little Rock -3.0 139.0 33% 68–69 ✗
Texas State @ South Alabama +1.3 135.5 56% 55–72 ✓
Georgia State @ James Madison +14.3 151.5 88% 63–83 ✓
South Dakota @ Omaha +8.0 153.1 81% 84–91 ✓
South Dakota State @ Kansas City +0.6 144.1 51% 67–72 ✓
North Dakota State @ Oral Roberts +3.9 149.9 67% 73–60 ✗
Tarleton State @ UT Arlington +1.8 141.4 58% 80–78 ✗
Minnesota @ Purdue +16.4 149.0 89% 76–84 ✓
Western Illinois @ Tennessee Tech -2.5 129.3 38% 62–55 ✓
Southern Indiana @ UT Martin +9.1 149.0 83% 68–77 ✓
Lindenwood @ SIU Edwardsville +9.7 134.5 85% 63–91 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Eastern Illinois +6.5 131.8 75% 57–75 ✓
UL Monroe @ Southern Miss +7.5 141.8 79% 68–59 ✗
Arkansas State @ Troy +6.3 153.9 76% 82–71 ✗
Austin Peay @ Central Arkansas -5.1 142.5 31% 77–67 ✓
Seattle U @ Southern Utah -1.8 145.6 42% 78–68 ✓
Lipscomb @ North Alabama +0.7 155.7 53% 70–75 ✓
Stanford @ Washington +5.1 159.5 72% 65–85 ✓
Colorado @ UCLA -0.7 134.7 47% 60–64 ✗
Gonzaga @ Loyola Marymount -11.2 147.4 16% 91–74 ✓
North Dakota @ Denver +3.6 157.4 66% 92–78 ✗
Utah Tech @ Grand Canyon +16.6 147.2 90% 61–73 ✓
Long Beach State @ UC Davis +2.3 146.0 62% 78–74 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Sacramento State +0.6 132.3 56% 73–58 ✗
Weber State @ Idaho -6.5 138.6 24% 70–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Eastern Washington +9.5 145.4 84% 82–88 ✓
California @ Washington State +11.1 143.8 85% 65–84 ✓
Pacific @ Santa Clara +16.2 150.8 90% 53–79 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +8.0 151.1 80% 66–71 ✓
Utah Valley @ California Baptist +2.6 131.3 63% 69–46 ✗
Hawai'i @ Cal Poly -6.7 134.6 23% 80–51 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +0.1 140.3 51% 76–71 ✗
UC Santa Barbara @ UC San Diego +6.8 145.4 78% 46–61 ✓
UC Riverside @ Cal State Fullerton +2.1 131.2 61% 81–73 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Portland State +0.5 153.6 52% 72–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ Saint Mary's +16.9 134.6 90% 59–103 ✓
Utah @ USC -2.2 150.1 43% 64–68 ✗
Harvard @ Cornell +10.7 150.6 85% 62–75 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.