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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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30–9 on winners spread MAE 10.4 39 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Georgia Tech @ Notre Dame +1.6 131.6 61% 55–58 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +6.9 146.3 75% 60–77 ✓
Tulsa @ South Florida +8.6 142.1 83% 50–69 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ High Point +11.7 150.2 87% 86–81 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern -3.1 138.1 37% 85–77 ✓
Chicago State @ Eastern Kentucky +6.7 140.5 73% 73–86 ✓
Xavier @ Seton Hall +2.1 142.2 60% 70–88 ✓
Holy Cross @ Colgate +16.3 136.7 90% 55–85 ✓
American University @ Navy -0.4 131.2 44% 59–42 ✓
Massachusetts @ Richmond +5.0 143.9 72% 69–59 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Fordham -4.3 140.8 34% 85–67 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Lafayette +6.9 130.0 75% 79–64 ✗
VMI @ Furman +15.4 157.3 90% 62–75 ✓
Wofford @ Mercer +0.0 139.2 51% 73–60 ✗
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -2.2 139.3 40% 76–61 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Chattanooga +7.1 139.5 79% 71–84 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Green Bay +3.4 139.6 69% 58–57 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Detroit Mercy +2.4 138.2 58% 66–81 ✓
Milwaukee @ Cleveland State +4.9 155.5 70% 71–68 ✗
Oakland @ Purdue Fort Wayne +1.4 149.0 55% 71–63 ✗
North Florida @ Queens University +1.1 157.7 57% 93–79 ✗
Jacksonville @ Kennesaw State +3.9 151.6 65% 61–66 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Belmont +1.2 147.5 55% 68–82 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Valparaiso -5.9 139.1 25% 86–67 ✓
Missouri State @ Murray State +2.5 138.0 64% 72–82 ✓
UIC @ Bradley +10.9 139.7 87% 73–85 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Loyola Chicago +3.4 145.7 70% 59–64 ✓
South Carolina @ Auburn +10.2 138.8 84% 61–101 ✓
Iowa @ Maryland +2.4 141.9 60% 66–78 ✓
UConn @ DePaul -17.4 140.7 13% 101–65 ✓
Tennessee @ Arkansas -9.5 149.0 19% 92–63 ✓
Oregon State @ Arizona State +5.2 137.1 71% 61–79 ✓
Western Carolina @ Samford +8.6 155.0 79% 62–88 ✓
Utah State @ Wyoming -6.9 147.1 22% 84–76 ✓
UNLV @ Fresno State -3.3 140.6 37% 67–65 ✓
UMBC @ Binghamton +4.6 152.6 70% 89–78 ✗
Hampton @ Stony Brook +11.7 146.0 87% 73–93 ✓
Northwestern @ Rutgers +0.8 131.8 54% 60–63 ✓
Marshall @ App State +11.9 147.9 87% 58–73 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.