Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | NAVY -125 AMER +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | AMER +17 | 101 | Lost |
| Massey | NAVY -0.3 (-17.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.5 (-33.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 43% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -0.2 (-17.2) | 126.6 (-25.6) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | AMER -0.4 (-16.6) | 131.2 (-30.2) | 44% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | AMER -0.4 (-16.6) | 132.3 (-31.3) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | AMER -0.5 (-16.5) | 131.7 (-30.7) | 47% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NAVY 82 – 73 AMER |
| Jan 13, 2026 | AMER 65 – 51 NAVY |
| Mar 12, 2025 | AMER 74 – 52 NAVY |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NAVY 68 – 60 AMER |
| Jan 3, 2025 | NAVY 81 – 58 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 8-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 8-9 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.6 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.8 |
| Massey | -8.8 (#308) | -5.6 (#270) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.41 (#346) | -1.48 (#303) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.86 (#343) | -1.53 (#290) |
| RPI | 0.375 (#353) | 0.430 (#305) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.0% | 45.1% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 34.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.25 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.6% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 15.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 31.1% | 27.9% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.2% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 69.6% | 74.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 20.4% |
Game Analysis
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