Betting Lines
| Spread | COLG -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | COLG -2500 HC +1700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLG +30 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | COLG -19.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLG -16.9 (+13.1) | 136.0 (+4.0) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLG -16.3 (+13.7) | 136.7 (+3.3) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLG -17.2 (+12.8) | 137.1 (+2.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLG -17.3 (+12.7) | 136.3 (+3.7) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | COLG 74 – 70 HC |
| Jan 29, 2026 | COLG 79 – 74 HC |
| Feb 27, 2025 | COLG 81 – 73 HC |
| Feb 12, 2025 | COLG 87 – 65 HC |
| Mar 8, 2024 | COLG 81 – 64 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLG | HC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 10-23 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-3 | 5-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 4-14 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 65.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 64.9 | 75.1 |
| Massey | 2.0 (#137) | -14.5 (#350) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.46 (#134) | -2.42 (#347) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.40 (#143) | -3.31 (#353) |
| RPI | 0.547 (#99) | 0.387 (#346) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLG | HC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.7% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 35.6 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.35 | 0.93 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 26.3% | 23.2% |
| FT Rate | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.2% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 13.4% |
| DRB% | 74.7% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 22.3% |
Game Analysis
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