And the only safe place to live is on an Indian reservation. "Ball of Confusion" - The Temptations
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Baseline — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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43–18 on winners spread MAE 7.7 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Iowa @ Purdue +7.9 154.8 83% 73–87 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Florida International +0.3 143.4 58% 62–66 ✓
Rice @ Florida Atlantic +12.2 152.9 88% 81–90 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Radford +3.8 131.0 60% 61–48 ✗
Stonehill @ Merrimack +0.4 130.0 48% 43–56 ✓
Fairleigh Dickinson @ Long Island University -8.1 153.1 19% 80–79 ✓
James Madison @ Georgia Southern -6.4 140.1 27% 73–76 ✗
Old Dominion @ Georgia State -1.0 133.2 42% 63–60 ✓
Marshall @ Coastal Carolina -11.3 154.7 19% 92–74 ✓
Kansas City @ Western Illinois +2.5 138.3 64% 76–64 ✗
Bellarmine @ Liberty +15.5 132.0 87% 50–70 ✓
Stetson @ Jacksonville -0.3 137.7 43% 70–67 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Queens University +1.9 150.4 56% 84–80 ✗
Florida Gulf Coast @ North Florida -1.5 150.3 41% 68–66 ✓
UT Arlington @ UT Rio Grande Valley +2.4 143.8 58% 64–58 ✗
App State @ UL Monroe -2.0 132.0 44% 52–45 ✓
Morehead State @ Little Rock -1.8 145.7 43% 68–72 ✗
Middle Tennessee @ Western Kentucky -0.5 142.8 48% 89–93 ✗
UAB @ North Texas +2.4 131.5 62% 79–82 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Nicholls +10.3 154.4 86% 59–84 ✓
Northwestern @ Ohio State +4.0 138.3 68% 69–63 ✗
Arkansas State @ Texas State +6.8 128.0 73% 62–66 ✓
Oral Roberts @ St. Thomas -10.6 156.0 16% 95–88 ✓
Omaha @ North Dakota State +4.6 150.9 73% 58–84 ✓
Denver @ North Dakota +1.3 148.9 60% 63–86 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Lindenwood -4.9 142.0 29% 63–58 ✓
Oakland @ Green Bay -7.8 139.9 21% 59–47 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Milwaukee +1.2 156.3 67% 89–94 ✓
Portland State @ Northern Colorado +2.8 155.0 64% 79–88 ✓
Sacramento State @ Northern Arizona +0.4 138.8 53% 55–77 ✓
Houston Christian @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +13.2 162.5 88% 68–91 ✓
SE Louisiana @ McNeese -2.2 147.0 37% 66–69 ✗
Lamar @ Incarnate Word +5.4 137.3 63% 68–59 ✗
Louisiana @ Southern Miss +5.9 147.3 73% 71–82 ✓
UT Martin @ Eastern Illinois -3.3 149.2 39% 75–77 ✗
Kennesaw State @ Jacksonville State -4.2 145.2 31% 54–52 ✓
Austin Peay @ North Alabama +6.0 146.0 79% 57–70 ✓
UCLA @ Oregon State -13.2 127.6 14% 62–47 ✓
San Francisco @ Gonzaga +12.0 158.7 86% 81–99 ✓
Charlotte @ UTEP -0.9 127.9 39% 62–53 ✓
Northwestern State @ East Texas A&M -2.8 141.2 31% 88–82 ✓
Tarleton State @ Southern Utah +6.9 150.7 76% 62–72 ✓
Pacific @ Portland +5.0 159.7 74% 73–81 ✓
South Alabama @ Troy +3.7 139.2 65% 57–61 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee State -0.6 157.7 50% 65–85 ✗
Southern Indiana @ Tennessee Tech -0.2 154.2 47% 69–84 ✗
UC Davis @ UC Riverside +0.8 145.4 59% 65–72 ✓
Montana State @ Weber State -2.8 133.0 38% 63–73 ✗
Montana @ Idaho State -0.3 138.7 45% 69–61 ✓
Lipscomb @ Central Arkansas -5.6 153.5 27% 93–81 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Loyola Marymount -6.3 133.0 36% 74–78 ✗
Arizona State @ Stanford +1.6 138.1 58% 69–65 ✗
San Diego @ Santa Clara +10.8 161.0 85% 75–80 ✓
BYU @ Pepperdine -5.3 153.8 33% 80–92 ✗
Cal State Northridge @ Cal State Bakersfield +3.2 129.3 57% 58–73 ✓
Cal Poly @ UC Irvine +13.8 132.6 88% 54–55 ✓
Arizona @ California -15.6 140.9 12% 85–62 ✓
USC @ Oregon +2.5 144.3 61% 60–78 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Long Beach State +0.5 148.3 47% 75–72 ✗
UC San Diego @ Hawai'i +10.2 133.9 84% 62–69 ✓
Kent State @ Buffalo -4.6 150.5 30% 72–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.