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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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49–14 on winners spread MAE 10.4 63 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
UConn @ Seton Hall -8.3 146.9 23% 60–75 ✗
Baylor @ Duke -0.1 160.1 50% 70–78 ✗
Xavier @ St. John's +4.6 150.5 66% 66–81 ✓
Grambling @ SE Louisiana +9.2 133.3 80% 47–48 ✓
Rider @ Delaware +17.8 140.8 95% 88–85 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Georgia +11.2 141.0 85% 82–94 ✓
Robert Morris @ Saint Francis -3.2 133.1 39% 75–73 ✓
Delaware State @ East Carolina +6.9 143.8 73% 50–79 ✓
Saint Louis @ NC State +16.3 157.1 93% 70–82 ✓
Wyoming @ South Dakota State +5.5 143.4 69% 78–65 ✗
Vermont @ Toledo +7.9 147.5 76% 86–60 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Pittsburgh +12.2 156.6 87% 48–62 ✓
Oakland @ Dayton +10.1 139.0 82% 67–91 ✓
Radford @ West Virginia +2.8 133.9 60% 66–65 ✗
Kansas City @ East Tennessee State +7.1 140.8 74% 57–70 ✓
Arkansas State @ Belmont +6.8 161.1 73% 70–74 ✓
North Dakota @ Nebraska +18.9 140.7 96% 75–83 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Rice +4.5 138.7 66% 56–82 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Evansville +16.4 150.7 93% 51–82 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grand Canyon +18.0 151.8 95% 64–76 ✓
Liberty @ Utah Valley -4.5 129.3 34% 79–63 ✓
UMBC @ Iowa +27.9 180.0 99% 81–103 ✓
Bethune-Cookman @ Chicago State +5.4 136.7 69% 54–55 ✓
Northwestern @ Arizona State -4.7 136.9 33% 65–46 ✓
North Carolina @ Oklahoma +3.5 156.5 62% 81–69 ✗
Villanova @ Creighton +10.7 143.0 83% 68–66 ✗
Jackson State @ Gonzaga +21.0 145.9 97% 76–100 ✓
UC Irvine @ New Mexico +6.9 151.5 74% 65–78 ✓
Bellarmine @ Utah +20.4 143.1 97% 43–85 ✓
Norfolk State @ UTEP +2.8 136.7 60% 65–67 ✓
Howard @ UC Santa Barbara +8.6 158.1 78% 81–94 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Seattle U +1.6 133.6 56% 73–79 ✓
Northern Arizona @ San Francisco +16.5 126.4 93% 51–91 ✓
Santa Clara @ San José State +1.8 144.2 57% 78–81 ✓
Pacific @ Cal State Fullerton +17.8 133.2 95% 56–67 ✓
Alabama @ Arizona +6.9 177.9 73% 74–87 ✓
Dartmouth @ Sacred Heart +7.1 132.4 74% 57–67 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Fordham +6.6 132.1 73% 82–80 ✗
Hampton @ Eastern Michigan +6.9 146.8 73% 69–72 ✓
UT Arlington @ Texas Tech +12.6 143.9 87% 66–77 ✓
Navy @ Youngstown State +12.2 131.2 87% 65–75 ✓
Manhattan @ Monmouth +11.7 142.1 86% 71–77 ✓
Holy Cross @ Harvard +23.3 145.3 98% 72–74 ✓
Alcorn State @ George Washington +23.0 168.7 98% 75–79 ✓
Incarnate Word @ UIC +18.1 145.8 95% 67–66 ✗
Quinnipiac @ Lafayette -2.3 137.9 42% 78–60 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Little Rock +2.8 142.8 60% 90–60 ✗
Nevada @ Temple -8.6 155.2 22% 80–56 ✓
Presbyterian @ Wake Forest +19.9 147.6 96% 68–91 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Air Force +9.0 138.7 79% 83–79 ✗
Niagara @ Syracuse +23.0 153.8 98% 71–83 ✓
American University @ Virginia Tech +18.6 142.8 95% 55–77 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Coastal Carolina +9.9 162.0 82% 85–82 ✗
TCU @ Old Dominion -14.7 152.0 9% 111–87 ✓
Kentucky @ Louisville -12.5 162.6 13% 95–76 ✓
Lehigh @ Boston College +17.5 153.0 94% 69–85 ✓
Western Michigan @ Cleveland State +11.8 143.5 86% 77–90 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ Ohio State +23.9 158.6 98% 36–78 ✓
New Hampshire @ Rhode Island +1.5 152.4 56% 81–71 ✗
Jacksonville @ Purdue +34.0 156.8 100% 57–100 ✓
Tarleton State @ Tennessee +21.0 138.8 97% 46–65 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Akron +11.7 134.2 86% 90–94 ✓
Stony Brook @ Michigan State +19.9 138.7 97% 55–99 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.