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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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48–14 on winners spread MAE 9.4 62 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Le Moyne @ Penn State +17.6 157.4 95% 55–72 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Davidson +16.4 139.6 93% 59–62 ✓
Abilene Christian @ Arkansas +13.6 153.6 89% 73–83 ✓
Idaho State @ Oregon State +3.3 137.7 62% 57–76 ✓
Buffalo @ Richmond +23.6 140.1 98% 66–72 ✓
Utah Tech @ Colorado +21.7 152.1 98% 71–98 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Troy +10.2 155.9 82% 81–88 ✓
Detroit Mercy @ Central Michigan +6.8 142.4 73% 63–75 ✓
UNC Wilmington @ Marshall -0.7 151.3 47% 78–69 ✓
UNC Asheville @ App State +14.3 146.8 90% 76–63 ✗
Colgate @ Iona -0.2 133.1 49% 65–85 ✗
South Dakota State @ Norfolk State -2.6 140.4 41% 65–84 ✗
Samford @ Texas Southern -6.0 153.2 29% 87–65 ✓
Maine @ Florida International -1.1 134.4 46% 74–82 ✗
Saint Joseph's @ Charleston -2.8 143.6 40% 82–89 ✗
William & Mary @ Pepperdine +9.7 155.3 81% 59–71 ✓
Fairfield @ Fairleigh Dickinson +0.0 159.0 50% 92–69 ✗
Florida A&M @ UCF +24.3 138.1 99% 56–69 ✓
Texas State @ Houston +27.4 116.9 99% 37–72 ✓
Alabama A&M @ South Alabama +16.1 158.0 93% 67–83 ✓
Stonehill @ Miami +25.1 151.1 99% 59–97 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Northern Illinois +2.8 162.2 60% 76–63 ✗
Ball State @ Minnesota +14.4 140.4 90% 63–80 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Bradley +10.4 134.4 83% 64–75 ✓
Army @ UTSA +9.1 139.4 79% 63–53 ✗
Idaho @ UC Riverside +3.6 134.2 63% 67–82 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Illinois State +15.2 127.9 92% 64–85 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Iowa State +34.5 145.3 100% 48–80 ✓
North Alabama @ Indiana +9.6 151.1 81% 66–83 ✓
Wichita State @ Kansas State +0.9 151.1 53% 60–69 ✓
Stanford @ San Diego State +15.1 151.6 91% 60–74 ✓
Kent State @ Oregon +7.7 157.4 76% 70–84 ✓
Lamar @ LSU +9.5 160.3 81% 66–87 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Washington +19.3 167.8 96% 66–73 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Massachusetts +5.5 152.5 69% 73–70 ✗
Wyoming @ UTEP +2.1 137.7 57% 67–78 ✓
South Dakota @ San Diego +12.4 162.4 87% 66–69 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Saint Mary's +13.2 128.2 89% 56–92 ✓
Hofstra @ UNLV +1.0 147.4 53% 56–74 ✓
Omaha @ Cal Poly +0.4 140.5 52% 53–66 ✓
Boise State @ Washington State +2.8 143.1 60% 61–66 ✓
Portland @ Hawai'i +12.6 152.8 87% 56–69 ✓
Drexel @ Bryant -1.6 126.2 44% 86–104 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Boston University -2.8 135.2 40% 71–63 ✓
James Madison @ Morgan State -22.0 171.4 2% 89–75 ✓
Vermont @ Miami (OH) -3.0 140.4 39% 69–70 ✗
Cornell @ Robert Morris -4.8 163.5 33% 90–85 ✓
Chattanooga @ Milwaukee -2.8 156.2 40% 83–85 ✗
George Mason @ Tulane +2.4 166.0 59% 69–66 ✗
Bucknell @ Merrimack +9.2 127.2 80% 52–68 ✓
Siena @ Brown +21.2 131.9 97% 67–71 ✓
UAlbany @ South Florida +8.7 149.4 79% 73–89 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Texas +19.1 149.2 96% 55–71 ✓
Drake @ UAB -7.0 151.5 26% 78–79 ✗
North Florida @ Georgia +16.4 147.4 93% 60–78 ✓
Nicholls @ Towson +4.3 137.7 65% 55–65 ✓
Montana State @ Cal State Northridge +7.6 140.8 76% 70–82 ✓
Grambling @ Florida +27.7 150.6 99% 57–96 ✓
Nevada @ TCU -0.2 152.0 49% 88–75 ✓
Queens University @ Clemson +24.4 152.6 99% 79–109 ✓
SMU @ Murray State -8.8 139.1 21% 92–65 ✓
Elon @ South Carolina +16.6 155.2 93% 43–70 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.