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Efficiency Plus — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–17 on winners spread MAE 8.7 61 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Ohio @ Central Michigan	-13.6	142.2	14%	81–72	✓
Indiana State @ Evansville	-3.8	133.3	31%	80–77	✓
Southern Miss @ UAB	+22.9	143.5	91%	63–84	✓
Old Dominion @ Middle Tennessee	+6.0	137.4	76%	48–63	✓
Florida International @ Marshall	+4.3	151.2	69%	72–71	✗
Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte	-3.4	144.4	33%	82–77	✓
Bryant @ Sacred Heart	-5.6	157.4	28%	99–86	✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack	+4.3	125.0	66%	60–57	✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Long Island University	+5.8	144.9	71%	69–74	✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson	-0.9	143.6	39%	78–65	✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood	+9.7	144.3	85%	72–85	✓
UIC @ Cleveland State	+9.0	146.0	80%	76–75	✗
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne	+14.0	125.2	89%	57–72	✓
Arkansas State @ Troy	+2.6	136.3	67%	77–79	✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina	+4.4	138.5	61%	61–50	✗
North Dakota State @ Western Illinois	+1.2	149.3	52%	84–81	✗
Mercer @ VMI	+4.4	148.9	66%	79–85	✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro	+7.5	144.5	79%	66–86	✓
Hofstra @ Drexel	+0.0	144.0	49%	83–73	✗
Northeastern @ Delaware	+6.2	134.0	75%	61–74	✓
Elon @ James Madison	+5.2	142.0	69%	70–66	✗
Iowa @ Maryland	-4.6	150.2	31%	110–87	✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe	-0.9	138.2	42%	71–74	✗
Duke @ Clemson	-3.9	141.8	35%	82–64	✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls	+12.4	143.6	87%	58–69	✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville	+2.6	138.4	71%	63–71	✓
Morehead State @ Belmont	+9.3	140.4	81%	47–48	✓
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky	+3.4	145.5	68%	69–76	✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ LSU New Orleans	+2.4	150.5	72%	69–78	✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley	+0.2	129.5	54%	79–69	✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Chicago State	-11.3	137.2	15%	81–61	✓
Texas State @ Louisiana	+1.3	131.9	54%	82–73	✗
Little Rock @ South Alabama	+11.3	141.3	85%	46–77	✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas	+8.7	147.5	72%	78–70	✗
South Dakota @ Omaha	-7.9	148.3	24%	91–69	✓
Murray State @ Tennessee State	-13.2	140.8	13%	73–62	✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois	-8.2	133.4	18%	73–62	✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Austin Peay	+2.6	143.7	63%	66–74	✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State	+3.8	149.1	61%	76–69	✗
Pacific @ Gonzaga	+21.2	154.1	90%	51–89	✓
Purdue @ Michigan	-3.1	144.8	44%	58–82	✗
Arizona @ Washington State	-3.0	141.7	45%	72–60	✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's	+15.0	132.5	88%	57–86	✓
Stanford @ Oregon	+6.8	137.4	77%	60–68	✓
Portland State @ Montana State	+10.7	142.7	86%	74–77	✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana	+9.3	136.5	79%	72–67	✗
Idaho State @ Idaho	+3.6	143.4	57%	79–70	✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington	+0.1	155.7	53%	67–75	✓
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech	-9.8	143.4	22%	77–69	✓
South Dakota State @ Denver	-10.4	157.0	16%	84–61	✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana	+4.3	155.9	72%	86–91	✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine	+4.8	124.7	61%	56–66	✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield	-3.6	125.7	29%	74–62	✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly	+1.0	129.5	39%	83–78	✗
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State	-5.5	142.6	34%	79–61	✓
Lamar @ California Baptist	+10.1	139.0	85%	61–83	✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U	+11.0	155.0	88%	59–67	✓
Arizona State @ Washington	+1.0	146.0	65%	64–87	✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount	-7.5	140.0	19%	83–82	✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco	+14.5	146.6	89%	61–105	✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i	+3.2	140.9	55%	73–66	✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.