Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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44–17 on winners spread MAE 8.7 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Ohio @ Central Michigan -11.9 142.7 14% 81–72 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -2.9 133.8 40% 80–77 ✓
Southern Miss @ UAB +22.4 143.6 91% 63–84 ✓
Old Dominion @ Middle Tennessee +7.4 139.8 80% 48–63 ✓
Florida International @ Marshall +2.3 151.8 60% 72–71 ✗
Louisiana Tech @ Charlotte -1.0 145.7 46% 82–77 ✓
Bryant @ Sacred Heart -4.1 155.9 30% 99–86 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Merrimack +3.8 128.7 64% 60–57 ✗
St. Francis Brooklyn @ Long Island University +6.0 146.3 72% 69–74 ✓
Saint Francis @ Fairleigh Dickinson -1.4 143.9 43% 78–65 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Longwood +10.1 147.4 83% 72–85 ✓
UIC @ Cleveland State +9.1 149.4 83% 76–75 ✗
IU Indianapolis @ Purdue Fort Wayne +15.3 128.4 89% 57–72 ✓
Arkansas State @ Troy +2.4 135.8 62% 77–79 ✓
Georgia State @ Coastal Carolina +4.1 138.9 68% 61–50 ✗
North Dakota State @ Western Illinois +1.6 149.2 59% 84–81 ✗
Mercer @ VMI +4.8 148.6 72% 79–85 ✓
The Citadel @ UNC Greensboro +4.8 142.3 73% 66–86 ✓
Hofstra @ Drexel +0.8 147.1 54% 83–73 ✗
Northeastern @ Delaware +8.1 136.3 79% 61–74 ✓
Elon @ James Madison +4.8 145.0 69% 70–66 ✗
Iowa @ Maryland -2.8 148.5 37% 110–87 ✓
UT Arlington @ UL Monroe +0.5 139.5 51% 71–74 ✓
Duke @ Clemson -4.5 143.4 29% 82–64 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Nicholls +12.0 145.9 87% 58–69 ✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +1.4 140.1 57% 63–71 ✓
Morehead State @ Belmont +11.2 146.2 83% 47–48 ✓
Florida Atlantic @ Western Kentucky +3.7 148.7 64% 69–76 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ LSU New Orleans +2.7 149.2 65% 69–78 ✓
Grand Canyon @ Utah Valley +2.8 130.8 64% 79–69 ✗
Stephen F. Austin @ Chicago State -12.3 138.5 14% 81–61 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana +1.6 135.7 58% 82–73 ✗
Little Rock @ South Alabama +11.8 143.7 87% 46–77 ✓
North Dakota @ St. Thomas +8.6 150.7 80% 78–70 ✗
South Dakota @ Omaha -6.4 151.6 23% 91–69 ✓
Murray State @ Tennessee State -14.7 140.1 14% 73–62 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Eastern Illinois -8.5 131.5 21% 73–62 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Austin Peay +2.3 144.3 62% 66–74 ✓
Houston Christian @ Northwestern State +4.0 153.8 68% 76–69 ✗
Pacific @ Gonzaga +22.6 154.9 91% 51–89 ✓
Purdue @ Michigan -4.2 149.5 31% 58–82 ✗
Arizona @ Washington State -3.9 142.0 31% 72–60 ✓
San Diego @ Saint Mary's +12.3 133.4 87% 57–86 ✓
Stanford @ Oregon +7.3 141.3 77% 60–68 ✓
Portland State @ Montana State +12.4 145.1 88% 74–77 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana +9.7 140.5 84% 72–67 ✗
Idaho State @ Idaho +4.1 144.4 67% 79–70 ✗
Weber State @ Eastern Washington -0.9 158.4 45% 67–75 ✗
New Mexico State @ Utah Tech -10.3 142.4 18% 77–69 ✓
South Dakota State @ Denver -11.6 159.8 16% 84–61 ✓
McNeese @ SE Louisiana +3.0 155.4 64% 86–91 ✓
UC Riverside @ UC Irvine +4.3 122.5 68% 56–66 ✓
UC Santa Barbara @ Cal State Bakersfield -4.2 130.0 35% 74–62 ✓
Cal State Northridge @ Cal Poly +2.0 129.3 58% 83–78 ✗
Northern Colorado @ Sacramento State -5.0 144.6 28% 79–61 ✓
Lamar @ California Baptist +10.3 140.7 85% 61–83 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Seattle U +10.5 157.0 87% 59–67 ✓
Arizona State @ Washington +2.0 141.7 64% 64–87 ✓
BYU @ Loyola Marymount -6.9 141.7 26% 83–82 ✓
Pepperdine @ San Francisco +16.2 145.3 90% 61–105 ✓
Long Beach State @ Hawai'i +1.8 142.4 59% 73–66 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.