Somehow I stayed thin, while the other guys got fat "Rush" - Big Audio Dynamite
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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36–19 on winners spread MAE 7.5 55 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Houston @ SMU -6.0 136.5 24% 83–85 ✗
Ohio State @ Rutgers -3.1 138.5 35% 64–66 ✗
Xavier @ Seton Hall +1.9 141.1 61% 71–73 ✓
Yale @ Harvard +0.8 140.1 52% 62–59 ✗
Army @ Boston University +7.9 141.9 79% 74–75 ✓
Loyola Maryland @ Holy Cross -5.6 134.2 26% 64–68 ✗
Cincinnati @ South Florida -7.9 127.5 22% 70–59 ✓
Lehigh @ Colgate +12.4 147.1 87% 62–78 ✓
American University @ Bucknell +3.0 142.8 62% 66–68 ✓
Radford @ Winthrop +9.0 141.6 82% 48–58 ✓
High Point @ Presbyterian +1.8 132.6 59% 79–70 ✗
Charleston Southern @ North Carolina A&T +10.2 139.6 86% 51–62 ✓
Gardner-Webb @ Campbell +1.1 131.2 53% 57–45 ✗
Wake Forest @ NC State -6.0 155.6 27% 69–51 ✓
Georgia Tech @ Miami +9.1 143.1 82% 70–79 ✓
Louisville @ Notre Dame +7.3 136.7 77% 57–63 ✓
NJIT @ New Hampshire +5.1 135.6 73% 60–55 ✗
UMass Lowell @ Stony Brook +2.8 139.5 62% 85–87 ✓
Maine @ UAlbany +10.6 129.3 86% 73–63 ✗
Hartford @ UMBC +9.2 145.9 82% 64–68 ✓
Binghamton @ Vermont +14.9 140.0 88% 51–82 ✓
Bellarmine @ North Florida +0.7 137.7 47% 73–70 ✗
Eastern Kentucky @ Jacksonville +6.3 137.7 73% 68–81 ✓
Oakland @ Youngstown State -2.5 143.3 36% 71–78 ✗
Detroit Mercy @ Robert Morris -2.1 141.3 38% 79–62 ✓
George Washington @ Massachusetts +6.0 152.4 75% 77–68 ✗
Richmond @ George Mason +1.3 140.6 57% 84–87 ✓
Duquesne @ Dayton +12.1 130.0 87% 54–75 ✓
Saint Joseph's @ Davidson +10.8 147.5 85% 67–73 ✓
Western Carolina @ Chattanooga +15.8 146.0 90% 47–65 ✓
Quinnipiac @ Fairfield +4.8 142.9 71% 69–60 ✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Delaware State -10.0 128.2 16% 58–50 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Stetson -5.4 141.0 24% 57–63 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Kennesaw State +10.6 152.1 86% 72–83 ✓
North Alabama @ Florida Gulf Coast +6.5 141.7 73% 60–92 ✓
Baylor @ Kansas State -5.1 137.1 30% 75–60 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +8.8 148.1 80% 69–80 ✓
Wright State @ Green Bay -7.0 138.0 23% 79–62 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Milwaukee -2.6 137.9 37% 75–39 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Northern Iowa +6.1 132.2 73% 44–53 ✓
Valparaiso @ Illinois State +3.9 149.6 67% 75–78 ✓
Missouri State @ Drake +1.8 146.2 59% 66–62 ✗
Wofford @ Samford -1.4 145.3 45% 60–65 ✗
Alabama @ Ole Miss -1.9 144.8 41% 97–83 ✓
Texas Tech @ Oklahoma -2.6 132.0 36% 55–70 ✗
Tennessee @ Mississippi State -2.7 139.4 38% 72–63 ✓
Georgetown @ DePaul +9.9 147.8 83% 74–82 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Florida State +10.6 133.1 84% 56–51 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Bradley -1.6 135.2 41% 61–68 ✗
Minnesota @ Nebraska -3.8 145.0 30% 65–78 ✗
California @ Oregon State -0.5 137.5 46% 63–61 ✓
San Diego State @ San José State -13.1 128.7 13% 72–62 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ Wagner +10.9 132.8 87% 57–69 ✓
William & Mary @ Towson +15.4 135.5 90% 60–75 ✓
Georgia Southern @ App State +5.1 128.7 72% 61–65 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.