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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–9 on winners spread MAE 8.2 40 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Auburn @ Arkansas -1.1 151.2 42% 76–80 ✗
Kentucky @ South Carolina -9.8 143.2 18% 86–76 ✓
Wisconsin @ Michigan State +4.0 137.3 68% 70–62 ✗
Evansville @ Indiana State +9.1 134.0 83% 65–56 ✗
Manhattan @ Rider +1.2 141.9 59% 67–76 ✓
Marist @ Monmouth +7.8 137.3 82% 83–58 ✗
Fordham @ St. Bonaventure +6.5 136.8 75% 51–76 ✓
Lipscomb @ Liberty +14.2 145.3 88% 69–78 ✓
Oklahoma State @ TCU +3.2 132.4 66% 73–77 ✓
Iowa State @ West Virginia +1.3 130.8 55% 63–79 ✓
Rhode Island @ VCU +5.4 126.2 72% 64–73 ✓
Saint Louis @ La Salle -10.5 148.5 17% 75–57 ✓
Central Michigan @ Ball State +9.0 148.3 82% 89–85 ✗
Ohio @ Toledo +4.4 146.9 68% 62–77 ✓
Western Michigan @ Miami (OH) +9.6 144.7 84% 57–62 ✓
Bowling Green @ Kent State +5.3 150.6 75% 68–76 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Buffalo +10.2 151.1 86% 64–102 ✓
LSU @ Texas A&M -3.8 136.5 34% 76–68 ✓
Kansas City @ St. Thomas -1.0 145.5 45% 76–67 ✓
East Carolina @ Tulsa +3.9 140.6 68% 73–71 ✗
Syracuse @ Boston College -2.3 146.2 42% 73–64 ✓
Akron @ Northern Illinois -6.1 132.0 23% 70–64 ✓
Villanova @ St. John's -4.4 148.6 30% 75–69 ✓
Illinois @ Purdue +6.6 153.2 76% 68–84 ✓
Wichita State @ UCF +1.8 136.2 59% 66–71 ✓
Butler @ Creighton +7.6 128.6 76% 52–54 ✓
Missouri @ Vanderbilt +8.1 134.4 79% 62–70 ✓
Utah State @ Wyoming +3.9 142.5 68% 76–78 ✓
Michigan @ Penn State +0.5 131.8 54% 58–57 ✗
Indiana @ Northwestern +1.1 141.0 56% 51–59 ✓
Pacific @ USC +18.5 137.6 90% 68–74 ✓
Portland @ San Francisco +15.3 145.0 89% 69–68 ✗
Cal State Fullerton @ Long Beach State +1.5 144.1 59% 61–71 ✓
Air Force @ UNLV +8.7 132.3 82% 44–78 ✓
UCLA @ Stanford -5.0 139.8 33% 79–70 ✓
Saint Mary's @ Santa Clara -0.5 141.6 49% 72–77 ✗
Colorado State @ Nevada -4.9 147.9 28% 82–72 ✓
Columbia @ Cornell +12.0 155.7 88% 75–88 ✓
Hampton @ UNC Asheville +9.3 136.0 80% 53–69 ✓
Georgia @ Florida +12.8 146.9 88% 63–72 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.