But anyone who ever had heart, they wouldn't turn around and break it. "Sweet Jane" - Lou Reed
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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25–8 on winners spread MAE 7.5 33 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Virginia @ Duke +13.4 132.6 88% 69–68 ✗
Temple @ South Florida -4.6 127.6 28% 49–52 ✗
Presbyterian @ Hampton -2.8 130.8 36% 69–74 ✗
George Mason @ Richmond +5.9 140.9 74% 59–62 ✓
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee +14.7 143.1 88% 75–84 ✓
Pittsburgh @ Virginia Tech +11.9 134.6 87% 47–74 ✓
New Hampshire @ Stony Brook +3.4 142.6 65% 67–65 ✗
Chattanooga @ Mercer -4.7 138.5 30% 74–72 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Western Carolina -2.1 136.0 42% 68–49 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Tennessee Tech +11.4 131.0 85% 58–84 ✓
Lafayette @ Navy +10.3 130.0 85% 44–68 ✓
Furman @ East Tennessee State -4.3 146.1 31% 71–75 ✗
James Madison @ Drexel +4.9 151.6 70% 66–72 ✓
Austin Peay @ Belmont +17.2 145.6 90% 58–72 ✓
Howard @ Delaware State -13.3 139.2 13% 69–64 ✓
Texas Southern @ Bethune-Cookman -8.2 129.8 18% 66–63 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ Florida A&M +1.8 141.0 61% 60–61 ✓
North Carolina Central @ South Carolina State -2.1 140.8 38% 68–74 ✗
Montana State @ Idaho State -11.6 137.7 14% 72–54 ✓
South Dakota @ North Dakota State +5.8 142.3 74% 74–76 ✓
UTEP @ North Texas +12.3 124.8 83% 58–66 ✓
Jackson State @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff -4.6 129.5 28% 60–47 ✓
Alcorn State @ Mississippi Valley State -11.1 142.2 15% 79–71 ✓
Arizona @ Arizona State -13.2 144.3 15% 91–79 ✓
Kansas @ Texas +1.6 136.9 58% 76–79 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ SIU Edwardsville +3.0 153.0 62% 76–47 ✗
Southern Utah @ Montana +0.2 143.5 50% 67–78 ✓
Alabama State @ Southern +11.7 148.1 85% 58–72 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Grambling +5.2 130.5 71% 50–58 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Northern Colorado +9.4 151.3 82% 60–82 ✓
Old Dominion @ Florida Atlantic +8.1 137.8 78% 62–81 ✓
North Carolina @ Clemson +1.7 152.2 57% 79–77 ✗
Marquette @ UConn +5.9 145.1 73% 72–80 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.