Betting Lines
| Spread | UTC -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MER win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UTC +2 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | UTC -7.3 (+5.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 29% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 25% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UTC -6.1 (+4.1) | 136.0 (+10.0) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UTC -4.7 (+2.7) | 138.5 (+7.5) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UTC -5.6 (+3.6) | 139.6 (+6.4) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UTC -6.3 (+4.3) | 138.5 (+7.5) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | UTC 94 – 90 MER |
| Feb 6, 2026 | UTC 79 – 75 MER |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UTC 76 – 61 MER |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UTC 93 – 84 MER |
| Jan 1, 2025 | MER 99 – 94 UTC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 14-4 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 12-4 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 65.4 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#219) | 7.8 (#67) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#154) | 1.72 (#57) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#173) | 1.80 (#74) |
| RPI | 0.518 (#148) | 0.602 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MER | UTC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 46.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 7.5 | 11.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.7% | 53.4% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 34.6% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 21.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 72.5% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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