Betting Lines
| Spread | NDSU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NDSU +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | NDSU -6.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.1 (+11.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 78% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NDSU -4.0 (-2.0) | 141.6 (+8.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NDSU -5.8 (-3.8) | 142.3 (+7.7) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NDSU -5.4 (-3.4) | 143.2 (+6.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NDSU -5.0 (-3.0) | 143.6 (+6.4) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 31, 2026 | NDSU 89 – 84 SDAK |
| Dec 31, 2025 | NDSU 84 – 61 SDAK |
| Mar 8, 2025 | SDAK 85 – 84 NDSU |
| Feb 27, 2025 | NDSU 82 – 78 SDAK |
| Jan 18, 2025 | NDSU 103 – 77 SDAK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 19-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 11-7 |
| Home | 12-3 | 12-4 |
| Away | 9-6 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.1 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -1.8 (#208) | -5.0 (#256) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | -0.46 (#215) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.19 (#163) | -0.74 (#224) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#162) | 0.465 (#232) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NDSU | SDAK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 25.4% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.3% | 53.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.0% | 16.3% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 78.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 25.3% |
Game Analysis
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