Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -11.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SOU +14 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | SOU -11.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.2 (-17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -11.0 (+3.0) | 146.7 (-16.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -11.7 (+2.3) | 148.1 (-18.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -10.7 (+3.3) | 147.6 (-17.6) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -11.4 (+2.6) | 147.1 (-17.1) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | SOU 71 – 64 ALST |
| Feb 10, 2026 | SOU 69 – 68 ALST |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALST 66 – 65 SOU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALST 82 – 81 SOU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | SOU 65 – 57 ALST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-14 | 9-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 10-2 | 6-6 |
| Away | 8-11 | 3-15 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.1 | 69.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.4 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -0.1 (#170) | -8.2 (#303) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#188) | -2.15 (#327) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#206) | -2.43 (#324) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#184) | 0.398 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.2% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 29.2 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.8% | 46.9% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 29.2% |
| FT Rate | 22.1% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 49.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.9% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 66.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 34.0% | 24.0% |
Game Analysis
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