Betting Lines
| Spread | CONN -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CONN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CONN +8 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | CONN -6.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.8 (+3.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CONN -7.1 (+0.9) | 148.6 (+3.4) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CONN -5.9 (+2.1) | 145.1 (+6.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CONN -5.9 (+2.1) | 145.1 (+6.9) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CONN -6.3 (+1.7) | 147.5 (+4.5) | 78% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | MARQ 68 – 62 CONN |
| Jan 4, 2026 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
| Mar 6, 2025 | CONN 72 – 66 MARQ |
| Feb 2, 2025 | CONN 77 – 69 MARQ |
| Mar 16, 2024 | CONN 73 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 19-13 |
| Conference | 13-6 | 11-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 13-3 |
| Away | 5-5 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 15.3 (#17) | 11.6 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.57 (#25) | 2.85 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#21) | 3.25 (#23) |
| RPI | 0.590 (#37) | 0.603 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CONN | MARQ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.7% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 41.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 14.3 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 52.7% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 38.2% | 23.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.7% | 45.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.6% |
Game Analysis
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