Betting Lines
| Spread | NAVY -9.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NAVY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NAVY +24 | 112 | Won |
| Massey | NAVY -13.6 (+10.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.9 (-13.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NAVY -11.3 (+12.7) | 125.6 (-13.6) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NAVY -10.3 (+13.7) | 130.0 (-18.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NAVY -10.3 (+13.7) | 130.8 (-18.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NAVY -10.4 (+13.6) | 131.0 (-19.0) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 5, 2026 | NAVY 65 – 50 LAF |
| Jan 10, 2026 | NAVY 76 – 50 LAF |
| Feb 8, 2025 | LAF 61 – 51 NAVY |
| Jan 5, 2025 | NAVY 71 – 70 LAF |
| Feb 29, 2024 | NAVY 62 – 58 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 10-20 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 6-9 |
| Away | 11-5 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 1-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 64.2 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 60.8 | 73.1 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#159) | -10.0 (#319) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.03 (#179) | -1.89 (#315) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#170) | -2.35 (#319) |
| RPI | 0.499 (#178) | 0.425 (#301) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NAVY | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 31.3% |
| REB / G | 36.0 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.2% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 20.0% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 22.4% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 13.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 16.4% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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