Betting Lines
| Spread | ALCN -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ALCN +8 | 150 | Lost |
| Massey | ALCN -12.9 (+4.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.1 (+1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 3% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALCN -8.9 (+0.9) | 141.3 (+8.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALCN -11.1 (+3.1) | 142.2 (+7.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ALCN -11.5 (+3.5) | 139.2 (+10.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALCN -11.1 (+3.1) | 140.2 (+9.8) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | ALCN 67 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 10, 2026 | ALCN 74 – 66 MVSU |
| Mar 7, 2025 | ALCN 72 – 64 MVSU |
| Feb 11, 2025 | ALCN 86 – 39 MVSU |
| Mar 8, 2024 | ALCN 74 – 67 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 2-26 | 17-17 |
| Conference | 2-16 | 14-4 |
| Home | 0-11 | 6-3 |
| Away | 2-15 | 9-13 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 83.0 | 71.1 |
| Massey | -21.1 (#357) | -5.0 (#257) |
| Bradley-Terry | -4.22 (#356) | -1.04 (#261) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.44 (#356) | -1.20 (#259) |
| RPI | 0.334 (#357) | 0.472 (#219) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALCN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.2% | 40.4% |
| 3PT% | 28.7% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 30.8 | 32.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.68 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 42.7% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 21.0% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.7% | 23.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.1% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.7% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 65.6% | 71.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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