Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCG -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCG +19 | 117 | Lost |
| Massey | UNCG -3.2 (-15.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 133.8 (-16.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCG -3.9 (-15.1) | 135.4 (-18.4) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCG -2.1 (-16.9) | 136.0 (-19.0) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCG -2.2 (-16.8) | 137.0 (-20.0) | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCG -2.4 (-16.6) | 134.2 (-17.2) | 38% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | WCU 91 – 77 UNCG |
| Feb 4, 2026 | UNCG 81 – 78 WCU |
| Feb 8, 2025 | UNCG 74 – 70 WCU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | UNCG 83 – 55 WCU |
| Feb 21, 2024 | UNCG 71 – 65 WCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-5 | 9-5 |
| Away | 2-14 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 64.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.2 | 65.1 |
| Massey | -7.5 (#295) | -1.2 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.70 (#238) | 0.38 (#146) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#239) | 0.26 (#153) |
| RPI | 0.458 (#250) | 0.515 (#158) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WCU | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 31.5% |
| FT Rate | 19.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 76.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.4% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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