Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -10.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | IDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +18 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | MTST -12.9 (-5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 4% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -11.8 (-6.2) | 137.3 (-11.3) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -11.6 (-6.4) | 137.7 (-11.7) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -11.6 (-6.4) | 140.3 (-14.3) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -12.3 (-5.7) | 139.5 (-13.5) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | IDST 91 – 76 MTST |
| Jan 23, 2026 | MTST 74 – 62 IDST |
| Mar 10, 2025 | MTST 80 – 60 IDST |
| Feb 16, 2025 | MTST 74 – 69 IDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | IDST 70 – 67 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 16-4 |
| Home | 5-8 | 13-1 |
| Away | 2-14 | 9-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 5-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 62.4 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.0 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -14.4 (#349) | 1.6 (#136) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#348) | 0.79 (#117) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.84 (#336) | 1.03 (#110) |
| RPI | 0.351 (#354) | 0.531 (#120) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | IDST | MTST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.7% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 8.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.1% | 52.8% |
| TOV% | 21.7% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 24.8% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 28.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.7% | 48.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 77.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.2% | 28.2% |
Game Analysis
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