Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCO -10.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.0 Under |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCO +22 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNCO -11.1 (+10.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.6 (-10.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCO -8.0 (+14.0) | 148.1 (-6.1) | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCO -9.4 (+12.6) | 151.3 (-9.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCO -8.8 (+13.2) | 153.3 (-11.3) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCO -9.5 (+12.5) | 150.8 (-8.8) | 82% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNCO 78 – 77 NAU |
| Jan 25, 2026 | NAU 81 – 77 UNCO |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UNCO 83 – 73 NAU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UNCO 87 – 69 NAU |
| Mar 5, 2024 | UNCO 82 – 74 NAU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-16 | 9-23 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 5-15 |
| Home | 9-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 8-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L8 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 78.0 | 74.8 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#224) | -10.8 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.28 (#197) | -1.83 (#311) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.51 (#208) | -2.32 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#155) | 0.434 (#291) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCO | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.1% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 37.3% | 35.4% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.86 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.9% | 48.3% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 27.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.8% | 20.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.4% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.3% | 13.9% |
| DRB% | 74.1% | 76.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.4% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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