Betting Lines
| Spread | DUKE -12.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DUKE win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +1 | 137 | Lost |
| Massey | DUKE -15.3 (-16.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 125.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DUKE -11.9 (-12.9) | 131.8 (+5.2) | 81% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DUKE -13.4 (-14.4) | 132.6 (+4.4) | 88% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | DUKE -13.5 (-14.5) | 133.9 (+3.1) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DUKE -13.3 (-14.3) | 133.0 (+4.0) | 84% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 15, 2026 | DUKE 74 – 70 UVA |
| Feb 28, 2026 | DUKE 77 – 51 UVA |
| Feb 18, 2025 | DUKE 80 – 62 UVA |
| Mar 2, 2024 | DUKE 73 – 48 UVA |
| Mar 12, 2023 | DUKE 59 – 49 UVA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 32-7 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 16-4 | 12-8 |
| Home | 15-3 | 11-7 |
| Away | 9-2 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 3-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.1 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 60.1 |
| Massey | 18.3 (#10) | 6.2 (#88) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.24 (#12) | 1.08 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.63 (#4) | 1.44 (#91) |
| RPI | 0.635 (#10) | 0.542 (#100) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DUKE | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.7% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 36.6% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 39.1 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.67 | 1.42 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.3% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 20.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.1% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 19.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 70.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 11.7% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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