Betting Lines
| Spread | FUR -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ETSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ETSU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | FUR -5.7 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.2 (+0.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 38% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FUR -5.6 (+9.6) | 145.0 (+1.0) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FUR -4.3 (+8.3) | 146.1 (-0.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FUR -4.8 (+8.8) | 146.6 (-0.6) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FUR -4.6 (+8.6) | 145.8 (+0.2) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 9, 2026 | FUR 76 – 61 ETSU |
| Feb 18, 2026 | ETSU 78 – 69 FUR |
| Feb 5, 2026 | ETSU 75 – 71 FUR |
| Feb 2, 2025 | ETSU 72 – 69 FUR |
| Jan 16, 2025 | FUR 73 – 70 ETSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-6 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-10 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 76.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.2 | 68.8 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#181) | 8.0 (#66) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.09 (#172) | 1.11 (#93) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.08 (#178) | 1.41 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.515 (#153) | 0.566 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ETSU | FUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 36.3% | 38.3% |
| REB / G | 34.5 | 34.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.51 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 27.5% |
| FT Rate | 12.4% | 17.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.8% | 16.3% |
Game Analysis
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