I love it when you call me Big Poppa "Big Poppa" - Notorious B.I.G.
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–20 on winners spread MAE 9.7 60 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Stephen F. Austin @ South Dakota State +13.6 151.7 89% 93–82 ✗
Princeton @ Marist -8.1 147.2 23% 62–55 ✓
Bryant @ Florida International -10.4 161.2 17% 91–85 ✓
Coppin State @ Marshall +20.0 169.9 97% 67–86 ✓
St. Thomas @ Merrimack -10.1 131.7 18% 72–61 ✓
Kennesaw State @ App State +0.7 142.8 53% 71–67 ✗
The Citadel @ Butler +21.4 145.1 97% 42–89 ✓
Stonehill @ Holy Cross -2.0 163.0 43% 81–79 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ VMI -6.3 146.3 28% 93–67 ✓
Incarnate Word @ Valparaiso +16.8 141.6 94% 64–68 ✓
Seattle U @ Portland +9.3 151.1 80% 80–68 ✗
Georgia Southern @ Houston Christian +2.3 129.9 58% 84–77 ✗
UC Irvine @ Pepperdine +1.2 138.6 54% 55–64 ✓
Hofstra @ Saint Mary's +10.7 148.5 84% 48–76 ✓
Nicholls @ BYU +19.3 148.2 96% 73–87 ✓
Troy @ Montana +1.6 141.3 56% 73–62 ✗
Portland State @ Oregon State +2.8 142.5 60% 79–66 ✗
Murray State @ Tulsa +6.5 157.2 72% 77–60 ✗
Furman @ South Carolina -14.2 142.2 10% 79–60 ✓
James Madison @ North Carolina -14.8 159.4 9% 64–80 ✗
Lindenwood @ Western Carolina +8.1 135.2 77% 88–90 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Campbell +1.5 138.2 55% 61–85 ✓
La Salle @ Georgetown -1.2 155.0 46% 62–69 ✗
Boston University @ New Hampshire +7.1 155.5 74% 64–57 ✗
East Texas A&M @ Eastern Kentucky +2.4 135.5 59% 75–61 ✗
Western Michigan @ Georgia Southern -4.3 145.3 35% 57–63 ✗
Central Connecticut @ UMBC +3.8 150.7 64% 76–78 ✓
Miami @ Maryland +9.0 137.4 79% 70–88 ✓
Massachusetts @ Charlotte +9.7 122.5 81% 60–54 ✗
Old Dominion @ Davidson -6.9 153.1 27% 61–66 ✗
SIU Edwardsville @ Longwood +15.4 163.4 92% 61–56 ✗
Montana State @ North Dakota -3.6 130.5 37% 81–71 ✓
Radford @ Army -8.5 153.2 22% 90–75 ✓
Youngstown State @ Navy +4.1 149.4 64% 67–80 ✓
Siena @ Harvard +7.1 151.5 74% 59–69 ✓
Alabama State @ Pittsburgh +13.9 149.9 90% 54–73 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese -5.4 157.5 31% 57–66 ✗
SE Louisiana @ App State +1.5 141.2 55% 74–83 ✓
Wake Forest @ Loyola Marymount +2.4 149.1 59% 75–77 ✓
Illinois @ Virginia +0.1 150.3 50% 61–70 ✓
Texas Southern @ Samford +23.1 140.0 98% 63–78 ✓
Prairie View A&M @ UT Martin +1.6 135.9 56% 79–80 ✓
Wagner @ Seton Hall +7.2 129.9 74% 44–82 ✓
UNC Asheville @ Georgia State -2.1 149.2 43% 68–74 ✗
Providence @ Saint Louis +1.6 161.3 56% 73–76 ✓
Virginia Tech @ Charleston -0.7 165.4 47% 75–77 ✗
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Nebraska +9.4 130.7 80% 58–82 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Tennessee Tech -0.9 144.6 47% 62–69 ✗
Texas A&M @ Loyola Chicago -3.5 152.1 37% 67–51 ✓
DePaul @ Oklahoma State +2.6 133.4 59% 78–82 ✓
VMI @ Fairleigh Dickinson +4.7 150.5 67% 89–93 ✓
Delaware State @ UConn +27.6 129.6 99% 60–95 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Wofford +13.5 146.0 89% 64–78 ✓
VCU @ Memphis +14.2 139.4 90% 47–62 ✓
Queens University @ Morgan State -2.3 143.9 42% 74–64 ✓
UCLA @ Baylor -1.6 160.6 44% 75–80 ✗
Miami (OH) @ Indiana +27.8 160.5 99% 56–86 ✓
Drake @ Wyoming -5.9 146.6 30% 61–56 ✓
Penn State @ Colorado State -3.1 132.3 39% 68–56 ✓
Milwaukee @ Iowa State +34.1 135.6 100% 53–68 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.