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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
25–8 on winners
spread MAE 9.2
33 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Colorado
@
Boise State
|
-7.7 | 136.1 | 24% | 55–68 | ✗ |
Kentucky
@
Gonzaga
|
+3.6 | 159.5 | 63% | 72–88 | ✓ |
Ohio
@
Michigan
|
+9.7 | 158.6 | 81% | 66–70 | ✓ |
Jackson State
@
Little Rock
|
+2.5 | 156.4 | 59% | 91–94 | ✓ |
Green Bay
@
Utah Valley
|
+10.6 | 129.6 | 83% | 56–79 | ✓ |
Santa Clara
@
UCF
|
+4.2 | 137.5 | 65% | 50–57 | ✓ |
Mississippi Valley State
@
Missouri
|
+29.2 | 157.1 | 100% | 62–83 | ✓ |
Tarleton State
@
Boston College
|
-6.8 | 138.6 | 27% | 70–54 | ✓ |
Houston
@
Oregon
|
-8.4 | 121.6 | 22% | 66–56 | ✓ |
Mount St. Mary's
@
Cal Poly
|
-4.3 | 130.1 | 35% | 73–68 | ✓ |
Illinois State
@
LSU
|
+5.3 | 134.1 | 69% | 61–77 | ✓ |
Kansas City
@
Toledo
|
+7.1 | 150.8 | 74% | 83–71 | ✗ |
Bryant
@
Detroit Mercy
|
-7.1 | 152.9 | 26% | 98–88 | ✓ |
Austin Peay
@
UAlbany
|
+6.2 | 134.9 | 71% | 74–59 | ✗ |
Northern Iowa
@
San Francisco
|
+1.5 | 136.6 | 55% | 69–75 | ✓ |
Buffalo
@
George Mason
|
+3.3 | 139.5 | 62% | 82–74 | ✗ |
Akron
@
Western Kentucky
|
+7.9 | 134.9 | 76% | 72–53 | ✗ |
Bucknell
@
Presbyterian
|
-12.3 | 134.2 | 13% | 66–65 | ✓ |
Texas Tech
@
Creighton
|
+5.0 | 128.2 | 68% | 65–76 | ✓ |
Indiana State
@
East Carolina
|
-10.0 | 153.3 | 18% | 79–75 | ✓ |
Grand Canyon
@
Wichita State
|
-2.9 | 114.3 | 39% | 43–55 | ✗ |
Cal State Northridge
@
Tennessee State
|
-1.9 | 119.6 | 43% | 73–74 | ✗ |
Howard
@
Belmont
|
+5.8 | 149.7 | 70% | 73–96 | ✓ |
UIC
@
Stonehill
|
+5.9 | 152.7 | 70% | 77–71 | ✗ |
Nevada
@
Tulane
|
-10.2 | 135.4 | 18% | 75–66 | ✓ |
Louisville
@
Arkansas
|
+15.8 | 118.5 | 92% | 54–80 | ✓ |
UT Arlington
@
Drexel
|
+2.1 | 121.8 | 57% | 38–59 | ✓ |
Central Michigan
@
High Point
|
+6.1 | 162.0 | 71% | 67–68 | ✓ |
Wyoming
@
Boston College
|
+3.0 | 130.8 | 61% | 48–59 | ✓ |
Western Illinois
@
UT Rio Grande Valley
|
+4.7 | 157.1 | 67% | 77–78 | ✓ |
UAB
@
South Florida
|
-10.1 | 151.6 | 18% | 80–65 | ✓ |
Utah
@
Georgia Tech
|
-3.1 | 128.3 | 39% | 68–64 | ✓ |
Mercer
@
Florida State
|
+0.5 | 152.8 | 52% | 72–81 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.