They smelled of pubs and Wormwood Scrubs and too many right wing meetings. "Down in the Tube Station at Midnight" - The Jam
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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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40–21 on winners spread MAE 12.2 61 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
South Carolina State @ Kentucky +26.6 158.5 99% 63–106 ✓
Merrimack @ Troy +9.1 155.1 80% 54–73 ✓
Wichita State @ Richmond +15.4 132.9 92% 56–53 ✗
Marshall @ Miami (OH) +0.8 162.8 53% 95–69 ✗
Bryant @ Florida Atlantic +3.6 150.2 63% 74–85 ✓
Towson @ UNC Greensboro -2.2 140.3 42% 56–53 ✓
North Dakota State @ Indiana State +17.2 151.8 94% 75–101 ✓
Stony Brook @ Brown +16.5 136.5 93% 53–64 ✓
Austin Peay @ South Florida +20.3 124.8 97% 62–60 ✗
UAlbany @ Saint Joseph's +3.1 132.2 61% 79–99 ✓
Boise State @ Charlotte +8.6 127.1 78% 42–54 ✓
Davidson @ Charleston +6.3 191.7 72% 66–89 ✓
Pittsburgh @ VCU +14.2 131.9 90% 67–71 ✓
Little Rock @ East Tennessee State +20.5 156.4 97% 76–84 ✓
Norfolk State @ Monmouth -3.7 144.1 37% 64–59 ✓
Hartford @ Boston University +16.0 134.9 93% 66–102 ✓
UL Monroe @ TCU +11.4 135.6 85% 60–95 ✓
Louisiana Tech @ Louisiana +13.2 137.7 89% 88–94 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Illinois +15.2 132.5 92% 44–57 ✓
Northwestern State @ Illinois State +11.9 130.6 86% 70–67 ✗
North Dakota @ Elon +11.4 143.9 85% 77–73 ✗
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Texas A&M-Corpus Christi +20.7 139.0 97% 75–97 ✓
Texas State @ UTSA +8.3 143.1 77% 56–61 ✓
LSU New Orleans @ LSU +14.4 136.5 90% 62–91 ✓
Northern Illinois @ Georgia Tech +9.8 118.5 81% 50–68 ✓
UC Riverside @ Creighton +15.0 155.0 91% 51–80 ✓
Coppin State @ Tennessee Tech -0.8 148.1 47% 90–85 ✓
Long Island University @ Marquette +24.1 149.9 99% 58–95 ✓
Utah Tech @ Arizona +21.3 173.7 97% 77–104 ✓
Portland @ Air Force -1.4 145.7 45% 64–51 ✓
Sam Houston @ Utah +17.5 126.2 94% 65–55 ✗
Central Michigan @ Minnesota +2.1 138.6 58% 60–68 ✓
South Dakota @ Mississippi State +27.6 138.5 99% 42–79 ✓
Michigan @ Arizona State -4.5 141.8 34% 62–87 ✗
St. Thomas @ Montana -16.2 137.6 7% 59–78 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Tulsa -2.4 160.2 42% 66–85 ✗
Hofstra @ San José State -0.7 138.5 47% 85–76 ✓
Utah State @ San Diego -2.7 152.1 40% 91–89 ✓
California Baptist @ Washington +12.2 123.9 87% 73–64 ✗
Rider @ Stetson +1.6 138.5 56% 68–78 ✓
Central Arkansas @ Niagara -1.0 129.2 46% 64–73 ✗
Queens University @ Green Bay -6.4 128.1 28% 81–65 ✓
Colorado @ Texas A&M -3.0 150.4 39% 103–75 ✓
Penn State @ Virginia Tech -0.6 148.8 48% 59–61 ✗
Buffalo @ Drake +7.7 154.2 76% 72–80 ✓
Lafayette @ UMBC -4.3 136.4 35% 63–71 ✗
La Salle @ Wake Forest +0.1 145.9 50% 63–75 ✓
Massachusetts @ Murray State +0.1 144.3 50% 71–69 ✗
Furman @ Old Dominion -2.5 148.6 41% 77–82 ✗
Lamar @ Lindenwood -6.4 129.7 28% 73–71 ✓
Howard @ Wyoming +0.2 149.1 51% 71–78 ✓
SE Louisiana @ Kennesaw State -2.4 159.1 41% 68–72 ✗
Loyola Marymount @ Georgetown +1.6 166.2 56% 84–66 ✗
Colorado State @ Charleston +0.4 168.1 51% 64–74 ✓
VMI @ Longwood +8.8 133.3 79% 58–90 ✓
Temple @ Rutgers +20.6 137.0 97% 72–66 ✗
Western Carolina @ McNeese +8.9 123.0 79% 88–69 ✗
Tarleton State @ Belmont -6.6 136.6 27% 89–81 ✓
Indiana @ Xavier -7.1 158.0 26% 81–79 ✓
Eastern Kentucky @ Georgia State +12.7 144.8 88% 62–61 ✗
Colgate @ Duquesne -6.2 147.9 29% 80–85 ✗

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.