Blood in the streets in the town of New Haven "Peace Frog" - The Doors
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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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45–14 on winners spread MAE 9.3 59 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
La Salle @ Duke +18.1 149.2 88% 66–95 ✓
Boston University @ Davidson +6.2 134.2 71% 45–69 ✓
Idaho State @ Campbell -0.6 123.6 39% 69–55 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Ball State +4.6 134.9 68% 58–75 ✓
Army @ UAlbany +6.8 137.3 78% 59–62 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Detroit Mercy +5.7 140.6 70% 76–72 ✗
UMBC @ Maryland +3.8 137.5 62% 68–92 ✓
Marist @ New Hampshire +3.9 134.3 60% 71–74 ✓
Lehigh @ Monmouth +5.1 143.6 71% 79–88 ✓
UAB @ Middle Tennessee +9.9 134.8 81% 58–57 ✗
Hofstra @ Wright State -6.2 156.0 27% 85–76 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ Utah State -4.1 147.8 32% 49–79 ✗
Long Island University @ Columbia +12.7 144.9 87% 67–77 ✓
Tennessee @ Purdue +1.7 135.4 57% 67–71 ✓
Western Illinois @ Valparaiso +2.7 138.5 60% 66–73 ✓
Alabama A&M @ Auburn +19.0 156.3 89% 54–84 ✓
Texas Southern @ Oral Roberts +14.4 130.9 87% 63–65 ✓
Alcorn State @ TCU +23.8 149.8 91% 74–93 ✓
UC Irvine @ Pepperdine -3.0 144.0 35% 76–60 ✓
Fresno State @ New Mexico State -6.1 140.2 27% 81–76 ✓
Siena @ Milwaukee +4.4 144.9 72% 59–61 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Minnesota +17.7 155.4 88% 67–86 ✓
Green Bay @ UC Riverside -3.0 123.3 36% 68–74 ✗
Le Moyne @ Cal State Northridge +15.5 148.8 89% 80–70 ✗
Kansas @ Marquette -2.5 158.9 38% 59–73 ✗
New Mexico @ Toledo +3.4 150.8 69% 92–84 ✗
Northern Arizona @ Hawai'i +10.8 143.8 80% 61–70 ✓
Buffalo @ Iona +11.4 144.8 85% 64–89 ✓
Northern Iowa @ North Carolina +6.3 150.9 75% 69–91 ✓
App State @ Murray State -7.8 151.0 21% 67–57 ✓
Chicago State @ Morgan State -3.7 142.9 34% 84–83 ✓
Georgia State @ Little Rock +3.5 152.8 64% 93–90 ✗
Texas State @ Southern Utah +0.1 131.8 52% 67–74 ✓
Colorado State @ Boston College -1.2 145.8 43% 86–74 ✓
Louisiana @ Long Beach State +4.6 145.2 71% 92–82 ✗
Tennessee Tech @ Presbyterian +12.1 140.9 87% 79–75 ✗
Harvard @ Colgate -2.3 132.2 34% 76–70 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Massachusetts +16.3 147.6 88% 60–89 ✓
Tennessee @ Kansas +2.1 140.1 60% 60–69 ✓
Sam Houston @ Grambling -8.6 142.1 21% 86–68 ✓
Texas Tech @ Villanova -0.5 127.3 42% 69–85 ✗
Austin Peay @ Sacramento State -2.3 130.1 40% 74–71 ✓
North Alabama @ UT Martin +5.9 138.6 71% 103–105 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Radford +3.8 138.7 67% 68–79 ✓
Ole Miss @ Temple +9.4 138.3 80% 77–76 ✗
Loyola Chicago @ Creighton +14.0 149.0 86% 65–88 ✓
Princeton @ Old Dominion -7.4 138.6 22% 76–56 ✓
McNeese @ Louisiana Tech +6.4 134.8 68% 62–71 ✓
Mount St. Mary's @ American University +5.1 144.7 67% 65–68 ✓
Purdue @ Marquette -2.2 150.5 41% 78–75 ✓
The Citadel @ Campbell -0.3 128.1 42% 58–65 ✗
Wright State @ Illinois State +2.7 144.0 61% 74–49 ✗
VMI @ Air Force +8.8 137.4 79% 54–64 ✓
Memphis @ Michigan -1.3 155.5 42% 71–67 ✓
Tarleton State @ Cal State Bakersfield -5.4 140.6 26% 59–40 ✓
North Carolina A&T @ Merrimack +7.4 139.4 78% 73–96 ✓
West Virginia @ Virginia +6.0 122.7 75% 54–56 ✓
Southern Illinois @ New Mexico State -7.9 140.6 23% 81–54 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ Northern Kentucky +3.2 141.0 65% 73–88 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.