Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -1.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Under |
| Money | USU -125 SFA +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +30 | 128 | Won |
| Massey | SFA -7.8 (+37.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.0 (-25.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 27% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SFA -2.0 (+32.0) | 146.5 (-18.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SFA -4.1 (+34.1) | 147.8 (-19.8) | 32% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SFA -3.8 (+33.8) | 149.4 (-21.4) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SFA -1.7 (+31.7) | 150.3 (-22.3) | 37% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-7 | 18-15 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-10 |
| Home | 14-1 | 10-5 |
| Away | 8-4 | 5-8 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 72.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 71.8 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#59) | 15.0 (#11) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.76 (#51) | 1.92 (#44) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.40 (#65) | 3.42 (#38) |
| RPI | 0.611 (#58) | 0.606 (#64) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | SFA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.1% | 54.9% |
| 3PT% | 29.2% | 47.4% |
| REB / G | 38.8 | 32.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.47 | 0.85 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 62.9% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 25.2% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 24.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.7% | 44.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 22.4% |
| DRB% | 78.8% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 37.8% |
Game Analysis
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