Betting Lines
| Spread | DAV -14.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | DAV -1400 BU +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAV +24 | 114 | Won |
| Massey | DAV -9.9 (+14.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.3 (-21.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAV -7.6 (+16.4) | 131.6 (-17.6) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAV -6.2 (+17.8) | 134.2 (-20.2) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAV -7.0 (+17.0) | 133.9 (-19.9) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAV -5.2 (+18.8) | 134.8 (-20.8) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAV | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 16-17 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 10-8 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-2 | 1-3 |
| Streak | L6 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 65.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.3 | 67.2 |
| Massey | 1.1 (#150) | -1.3 (#199) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.63 (#233) | -0.45 (#217) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.89 (#225) | 0.13 (#173) |
| RPI | 0.454 (#233) | 0.428 (#260) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAV | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.6% | 37.9% |
| 3PT% | 39.0% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 8.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.90 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.1% | 45.3% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 26.0% | 21.4% |
| FT Rate | 31.0% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.3% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 67.5% | 77.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 31.9% |
Game Analysis
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