Betting Lines
| Spread | LBSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | LBSU -250 UL +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LBSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +10 | 174 | Lost |
| Massey | LBSU -7.9 (-17.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.8 (+26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LBSU -3.7 (-13.7) | 146.7 (+27.3) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LBSU -4.6 (-14.6) | 145.2 (+28.8) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LBSU -4.3 (-14.3) | 147.1 (+26.9) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LBSU -4.4 (-14.4) | 147.5 (+26.5) | 71% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LBSU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-15 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 9-7 | 5-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 74.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 72.7 |
| Massey | 4.5 (#100) | -3.4 (#238) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.06 (#101) | -0.70 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#78) | -0.90 (#226) |
| RPI | 0.531 (#140) | 0.439 (#248) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LBSU | UL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 45.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.8 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 11.5 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.76 | 0.98 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.5% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 62.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.8% | 24.9% |
Game Analysis
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