Betting Lines
| Spread | RAD -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | RAD -188 UNCO +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RAD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RAD +11 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | RAD -6.4 (+4.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.3 (+7.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | RAD -4.3 (+6.7) | 139.4 (+7.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | RAD -3.8 (+7.2) | 138.7 (+8.3) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | RAD -3.8 (+7.2) | 141.5 (+5.5) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | RAD -4.1 (+6.9) | 141.0 (+6.0) | 63% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RAD | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 19-14 |
| Conference | 5-11 | 12-6 |
| Home | 8-5 | 11-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 4-0 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 79.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 78.2 |
| Massey | -1.0 (#189) | -7.4 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.49 (#143) | -0.64 (#236) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#151) | -1.09 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.566 (#100) | 0.389 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RAD | UNCO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.0% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 27.8% |
| REB / G | 38.2 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.6 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.62 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 15.7% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.8% | 53.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.0% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 70.0% | 75.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.3% | 30.2% |
Game Analysis
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