Betting Lines
| Spread | UCR -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 124.5 Over |
| Money | UCR -333 GB +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCR +6 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | GB -6.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 112.5 (+29.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 22% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GB -0.4 (+6.4) | 133.2 (+8.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GB -3.0 (+9.0) | 123.3 (+18.7) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GB -3.4 (+9.4) | 124.8 (+17.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GB -1.5 (+7.5) | 128.0 (+14.0) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCR | GB |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 10-10 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-5 | 10-5 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 0-3 | 1-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.3 | 68.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.4 | 70.2 |
| Massey | -8.0 (#314) | -1.8 (#211) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.34 (#282) | -0.05 (#188) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.21 (#287) | -2.89 (#311) |
| RPI | 0.386 (#299) | 0.463 (#220) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCR | GB |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 31.6% | 39.6% |
| 3PT% | 29.0% | 19.4% |
| REB / G | 33.3 | 38.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 8.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.40 | 0.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 38.5% | 43.8% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 23.3% |
| FT Rate | 9.7% | 14.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.4% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 8.6% |
| DRB% | 66.0% | 73.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.8% | 24.2% |
Game Analysis
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