Betting Lines
| Spread | MICH -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | MICH -115 MEM -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MICH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MEM +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | MEM -0.0 (-4.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 164.2 (-26.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MEM -1.0 (-3.0) | 159.2 (-21.2) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MEM -1.3 (-2.7) | 155.5 (-17.5) | 42% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MEM -1.1 (-2.9) | 156.0 (-18.0) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MEM -1.2 (-2.8) | 157.7 (-19.7) | 52% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MICH | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-24 | 22-10 |
| Conference | 3-17 | 11-7 |
| Home | 5-10 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-9 | 7-6 |
| Neutral | 1-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-1 | 3-0 |
| Streak | L9 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.9 | 80.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.0 | 75.8 |
| Massey | 7.1 (#61) | 7.1 (#60) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#142) | 2.73 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.79 (#141) | 5.02 (#8) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#174) | 0.593 (#72) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MICH | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.1% | 48.7% |
| 3PT% | 38.7% | 39.7% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 43.7 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.11 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 60.0% | 56.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 33.3% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 42.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 65.7% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.6% | 16.0% |
Game Analysis
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