Betting Lines
| Spread | CSU -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BC +188 CSU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSU +12 | 160 | Lost |
| Massey | CSU -2.5 (-9.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.6 (+11.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSU -1.2 (-10.8) | 144.8 (+15.2) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSU -1.2 (-10.8) | 145.8 (+14.2) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSU -0.9 (-11.1) | 146.4 (+13.6) | 45% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSU -0.1 (-11.9) | 147.4 (+12.6) | 42% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-16 | 25-11 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-6 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-7 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-0 | 4-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 67.9 |
| Massey | 7.7 (#46) | 10.2 (#29) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.33 (#8) | 2.91 (#19) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.97 (#9) | 4.73 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.677 (#21) | 0.651 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BC | CSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 55.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 40.9% |
| REB / G | 42.0 | 31.0 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 3.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.24 | 2.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.8% | 63.7% |
| TOV% | 15.3% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 11.9% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 30.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 19.7% |
| DRB% | 75.0% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 12.7% | 18.8% |
Game Analysis
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