Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | TOL +138 UNM -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TOL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +8 | 176 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -5.3 (-13.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.5 (+20.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 97% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -4.0 (-12.0) | 151.6 (+24.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -3.4 (-11.4) | 150.8 (+25.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -3.6 (-11.6) | 151.8 (+24.2) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -3.3 (-11.3) | 150.7 (+25.3) | 64% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TOL | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 26-10 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 10-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-5 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 8-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-0 | 2-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 80.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.1 | 71.2 |
| Massey | 5.0 (#92) | -0.3 (#177) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.64 (#25) | -0.84 (#253) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.34 (#39) | -1.64 (#269) |
| RPI | 0.592 (#75) | 0.403 (#283) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TOL | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 52.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 44.4% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 29.7 | 42.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.68 | 1.27 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.7% | 46.5% |
| TOV% | 13.5% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 34.7% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 24.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 59.9% | 44.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 27.1% | 17.9% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 68.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 9.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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